It's going down...

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ahh but on the other hand working for half the rate twice as much equals at worst the same amount of gigs in what seems a lowered avg rate market. If you are bid out of the typical number you wont work half as much perhaps not even at all. 2 for 1 price versus failing to land the 1 for full price is a gain. In todays competitive market to stay in the game we must work harder and smarter. However at what ever the rate I never felt like I was working hard in any facet of completing an event.
 
I am reminded of the old tale of the carter who once prospered. When the Model T became widely affordable, the carter's business failed. People weren't buying carts anymore.

Why did his business fail? Well, possibly because the carter forgot what business he was in. He wasn't in the cart building business. He was in the transportation business. The transportation business changed and the carter didn't know how to change with it.

I agree that the ticket is to work smarter, not harder. :)

This downward trend has affected more than the DJ biz. Photographers, caterers, rental houses, bakers, florists ~ everyone is seeing a decline in wedding customers. These businesses are not locked into weddings and receptions only.

Neither are we. We can no longer just play music. Remember, we are not in the disc jockey business. We're in the entertainment business.

Dude: Feel free to use my comments in your next DJ News article. Even if ya don't, I look forward to reading it anyhow. :)
 
I know EXACTLY what Bob is talking about........
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The CDC (census) is counting documents (paper), not market information.

Dude is musing again.

He's found another problem to fix his solution.
 
The CDC (census) is counting documents (paper), not market information.

Dude is musing again.

He's found another problem to fix his solution.
Click to expand...

Or maybe he is banging his head against a wall in frustration of "people" that can't understand a question that asks for "opinions" on a subject.

Performance:

A pen is mightier than the sword.

Why not put some of your expertease into writing and submit some letters to the editor?

Better yet, why not write an article or two yourself??
 
Proformance said:
The CDC (census) is counting documents (paper), not market information.
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Well Bob... 3 things...,

1) The papers being counted are the factual benchmark vitals stats that can be used with other market factors to evaluate where things have been & where they might be going.

2) They offer market information by state... Each state can be contacted directly for county level reports.

3) This thread is about the factual downturn in marriages/weddings & a request for opinions about when these numbers may turn around. Not about the perctage of partial to full blown marriages/weddings and the specific dollars they are spending, etc...

You are more than welcome to start a thread that illustrates your tangent as to arguing semantics over terms & information you clearly cannot or refuse to understand.

In reference to the wedding industry: The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. However, when one refuses to study the parts...ones perception of the whole is diminished by lack of perspective.

BTW, thank you for finally acknowledging that the CDC is the (benchmark) statisical repository for marriages/weddings.

There may be hope for you yet...!
 
I think that Fred hit the nail on the head. If all you do is weddings, then you need to consider diversifying. I haven't read all 9 pages, so if I repeat what someone else has said, I'm sorry, but a couple of thoughts:

1. Prices have gone up for DJs. Maybe not all and not as much for some as others, but for the most part, there are more DJ's making over $1000.00 for an event now then at any other time in the history of our industry.

2. Competition has gone up, but has the quality of the competition? Seriously, the majority of mobile dj's suck in one or more of the following areas (business, performance, customer service). It really doesn't take that much work to put your self in the top 10% of your market. If you are better then your competitor then you should get more of the market share then them.

3. Weddings might be down from 1970, but the % of those weddings that use mobile DJ's is way up. Since there isn't any data to show the following information:

- What % of weddings use a DJ?
- What % of the total budget was used for the entertainment?
- What the average $ was spent on entertainment?

Its really hard to see if we are doing better or worse. The statistics suggest that there are less weddings. Our obserbvations suggest that there are less high paying weddings / parties. The facts might confirm this or possibly refute this. Hard to say as there isn't any data for all the above questions.

I can't speak for anyone else, but our company has done more high priced events (events over $1000.00) this year then ever before. We did our highest priced wedding reception last night ($2600.00) then ever before. My business is going to show the highest gross this year then ever before. From where I'm sitting, I'm not ready to cry out the sky is falling.

The area I live in is growing. They are putting up homes and commerical buildings everywhere I look. I'm not suggesting that what I'm experiencing is going on everywhere else. I know that other areas are suffering, but for me, these stats don't currently concern me. Sorry :sqembarrassed:
 
kellys said:
I think that Fred hit the nail on the head. If all you do is weddings, then you need to consider diversifying.
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Kelly, so noted...

However, this is not a specific discussion about any one businesses need for diversification in particular. Just the declining overall potential for marriage/wedding events.

There will always be a percentage of the marriages/weddings that do not have a reception that involves music. In many cases, the increase in MDJ presence was at the expense of bands.

kellys said:
1. Prices have gone up for DJs. Maybe not all and not as much for some as others, but for the most part, there are more DJ's making over $1000.00 for an event now then at any other time in the history of our industry.
Click to expand...

As well they should. However, if the prices are not adjusted to inflation does the MDJ realize an increase or ability to maintain previous wages?

kellys said:
2. Competition has gone up, but has the quality of the competition? Seriously, the majority of mobile dj's suck in one or more of the following areas (business, performance, customer service). It really doesn't take that much work to put your self in the top 10% of your market. If you are better then your competitor then you should get more of the market share then them.
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more. However, this does not effectively address the increases in competition.

Dilemma: Increased MDJ population with Decreasing overall potential marriages/weddings.

Without a realistic attrition rate, the population of MDJs continues to rise that HAS (for some) and WILL (for others) continue to create martket problems.


kellys said:
3. Weddings might be down from 1970, but the % of those weddings that use mobile DJ's is way up. Since there isn't any data to show the following information:

- What % of weddings use a DJ?
- What % of the total budget was used for the entertainment?
- What the average $ was spent on entertainment?
Click to expand...

These are all valid questions...AND...specific components to consider when drafting a strategic business plan. You've posed questions that many cannot comprehend or may wish to dismiss as un-necessary.

The questions you've posed are also market specific.

kellys said:
I know that other areas are suffering, but for me, these stats don't currently concern me. Sorry
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No need to apologize. Your current market conditions simply offer a different climate right now. In time, that may change. For now increasing population produces more marriages/weddings due to ration per thousand.

Check Your State

If for some unforeseen reason the Florida population were to plateau or began to decline and the MDJ population continued to rise. Your current market climate could change dramatically.
 
DJMN Wrote:
I agree....the sky isnt falling on me either! Its 100% opposite for me!

Maybe in a few years....we can talk!
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Is this because the wedding rate hasn't dropped?

or

Could it be that you have mastered the art of the sale, marketing, and show a value worthy of the price charged to the clientel base?

Are others in your area doing as well?
or
Has your business plan and methods of operation been succesfully implimented, where they have not?
 
I'm afraid that my opinion is quite parochial, as Michigan is a special case. In the words of a good friend and long time colleague who said, when I was interviewing DJs for my article, "Anyone who tells you they aren't hurting are lying to you!" I would agree 100%, except for the two that I interviewed that reported banner years had also implemented new ways to bring money and customers in! One rents an "iParty" system to DIY customers. Another rents party tents, tables, chairs and seat covers. He also just added a cool rental jukebox to his sideline arsenal as well.

So I'd say that Fred's strategy is a sound one here in Michigan, and if things head south in your neck of the woods, it's a good idea to keep these ideas handy IMO.
 
It is a fool who is not watching market trends and thinking ahead of the curve to adapt. That's all Dude is asking. Speculate all you want about numbers in your market, but it is also a good idea to make sure what you 'see' is close to reality. If it is not (and good for you for finding a sweet spot) you had better know why, or when that source dries up, and it will eventually, you may be dead in the water wondering what happened.

Dude has been in business for somewhere around 20 years. If he truly were sour grapes all the time as some of you elude to, he would be long gone already. While his posts tend to stimulate conversation about our individual markets that isn't always smiley and well, it should be a reminder to compare your success in a demographic to statistics, not always to other DJs. At some point you need a true guage.

As for the topic at hand, while weddings are not our line of work, I think it will be a few years before wedding numbers begin to climb. I'm not sure they will ever 'rebound'. The reason being that every other industry; photographers, caterers, planners, decorators, etc, are all trying to increase their piece of the pie as well. That means consumers have to decide on priorities. Some will spend most of their wad on food, others dress, others the DJ and others yet the photographer. It all depends on which aspect is most important.
 
DJStuCrew said:
In the words of a good friend and long time colleague who said, when I was interviewing DJs for my article, "Anyone who tells you they aren't hurting are lying to you!"
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DJStuCrew,

Truer words have never been spoken.

However, there is always the "oblivious" factor. Those MDJs that bury their heads in the sand can stay happy as long as they can avoid accepting reality.

Which reality?

There's a way to tell.

There's the group that denies & condemns the possibility that a downside exists.

There's the group that knows the downside AND upside exist...and are seeking a balanced solution.


This goes WAY BEYOND the power of positive thinking.

Convictions without action are worthless.


Val,

Thank you for your insightful words. You are spot on!


Now let's consider a possible rebound.

When might it take place?

I contend that we could begin to see an upswing in marital numbers around 2010-2012.

Why?

If you chart the marrying ages by group. Age 20-24 indicates the first signifant marriage group. While 25-29 indicates the highest rate of marriage by age group.

View attachment 3011
(click for full size)

Since Census demographics reflect the largest marriage group as 25-29, that indicates these people were born bewteen 1978 & 1982.

The Births (in thousands) indicated in the chart below reflect that the statistical decline in marriages/weddings over the past 5 years relates to lower birth statistics from the mid 1970s.

If the same methodology is applied to the 25-29 marriage age group the next birth spike comes in 1990.

Gulf War 1 babies...

Given the rise in the first time marrying age over the past decade, we should see an increase around 2010 - 2012. Which should stay fairly sustained though 2016.

View attachment 3010
(click for full size)
Source: CDC, NCHS & US Census Bureau
 

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Thanks for the kind words, Dude, AND for the hard numbers! That is what has been missing from this whole topic.

I'm a firm believer in cycles, and it is inevitable that weddings will once again go on the upswing. Your data looks encouraging -- a sign that said upswing isn't all that far off!

Funny -- I gave my friend's comment special attention because, for as long as I've known her, she's been a full-time DJ like I am. When I called her to get a quote for my article, I got her -- AT HER DAY JOB!!! She explained that things were so bad that she had to take it. "I can't mess around -- I have kids to think about." She's also working for a good friend, so it wasn't hard to accept. For me? Sheez... I've been a DJ for 26 years, and full time for 22 of 'em, so I can't imagine who'd hire me. If it weren't for writing...

Again, thanks for the data. Hard to stick one's head in the sand when confronted with facts. (Although we all know someone who does it anyway!)
 
Valerie Ruste said:
It is a fool who is not watching market trends and thinking ahead of the curve to adapt.
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Val, are you calling me a fool? ;)

Seriously though, I get what Dude is saying. I have heard enough other people on these boards from other parts of the country (and world for that matter) that are experiencing a downward trend in their business. It's a shame. Florida isn't the world mecca for growth and prosperity. It's not like $100,000.00 a year jobs are growing on trees around here.

There are even DJ's in this market that are struggling. I like to think of them as my competition :) (again, kidding, well sort of anyway). I just believe that ultimately, you hold your own fate in your hands. Unless our profession goes belly up (which I don't see happening anytime soon), there is work out there. There are weddings / corporate / schools / youth / bars / bubble parties / senior citizen homes / sound reinforcement / karaoke / bowling centers / skate rinks / block parties / birthday parties / anniversaries / and the list goes on and on. If one segment lets you down, then get busy marketing to another.

Drax brought up a thought a few years ago about how our industry is going to evolve. He believes that eventually venues will all incorporate sound / lighting / video into there facilities. DJ's will be more of MC/Entertainers then what we currently are (well, for most anyway). He sees a time where you will have little to no space to set up and you will basically hook up your computer to their system and be on your way. I think this is a more likely future then one without weddings.

I don't have hard facts, but I have a very long history of people getting married. I don't think this tradition is going to go away anytime soon.

Just my opinion, but its mine and it keeps me warm at night :)
 
Cool, I got a few years to get my stuff together.:sqlaugh: Keep teaching me everyone!

Dude. Taking into consideration 1980 did have an upswing, and an average age of 26 - 27, could explain the "why" some are having a good solid year.

I know you... Where is the link for state by state comparisions!

Come on... Out with the data!

While I do agree with going on trends, Kellys did bring up some valid points. Computers, ipods, budget minded couples, and venue greed (or capitalizing on an opportunity) also are big things to think about.

Example.

Computers are now being used heavily in weather forcasting. Much of the "programming and predicting" is based on past points of reference. However, topical geography (cities, urban sprall, less forests) have changed wind patterns, radiational heating / cooling etc. Thus it seems weather forcasters (lately) are doing worse than the old farmers almanac.

It is great to use this as a platform for building educated guesses, non the less they will still be guesses.

Multiple streams of income are still the best (imo) option. Don't put your head back in the sand for another couple years thinking it will be allright when you pop up in 2010.
 
kellys said:
Val, are you calling me a fool? ;)
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I don't need to Kelly. You see, in that very same post, you let on that you really do know your market. [not that I was trying earlier to say you or anyone else in particular didn't] Previously you posted somewhat lightheartedly about "all is fine and good here", but you are not a dummy in business. You know your market; you just didn't elaborate in your response. So, no, Kelly. Not a fool IMO. ;-)
 
Flyingdjdan said:
Dude. Taking into consideration 1980 did have an upswing, and an average age of 26 - 27, could explain the "why" some are having a good solid year.
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Dan,

There a several factors that can contribute. Concentration of marriage population, socio-economic factors, natural Disasters, military call-ups, local religeon presence...etc.

Keep in mind that the REAL success stories are the exception...not the rule.

My question would be to those having their solid year. Are they still working for the "establishment" or are they fully self employed.

Pulling down a FT check elsewhere and having an up year in the DJ realm adds to net worth & retirement accounts. However, if times were really that good...why are some still working for the "establishment"?

Hmmm... most common reply...

Health Benefits!

Soooo.... If this solid year is really that solid...why can't these DJs venture into REAL fulltime DJ status? Because their banner year, isn't that banner.

DJs love to brag. They brag about their gear, their music collections, the types of dances they do...and the $$$ they bring down. Surprisingly, there are not that many success stories floating around. Not like the "good ol days".

The ABSENCE of success stories is pretty telling when you sit and think about it.

BTW, it's not just DJs. I asked the event manager at a local hotel how their year is shaping up. Initial response...GREAT! I probed a little deeper...and found that they are busier with small cap/$$$ events and the weddings are notably down. We feel fortunate to have 50% of the wedding events that the facility is hosting this year...however, the small cap events are not utilizing entertainment. The same has been true for holiday corporate events as well.

Flyingdjdan said:
I know you... Where is the link for state by state comparisions!

Come on... Out with the data!
Click to expand...

www.discjockeynews.com/stats.asp


Flyingdjdan said:
Example.

Computers are now being used heavily in weather forcasting. Much of the "programming and predicting" is based on past points of reference. However, topical geography (cities, urban sprall, less forests) have changed wind patterns, radiational heating / cooling etc. Thus it seems weather forcasters (lately) are doing worse than the old farmers almanac.

It is great to use this as a platform for building educated guesses, non the less they will still be guesses.
Click to expand...

Precisely, even the best laid business plan is an educated guess that demands participation and constant evaluation for success.
 
kellys said:
Drax brought up a thought a few years ago about how our industry is going to evolve. He believes that eventually venues will all incorporate sound / lighting / video into there facilities. DJ's will be more of MC/Entertainers then what we currently are (well, for most anyway). He sees a time where you will have little to no space to set up and you will basically hook up your computer to their system and be on your way. I think this is a more likely future then one without weddings.
Click to expand...

Theres a venue on the outskirts of my market that the option for that is there already. before you are allowed to hookup to thier system though they want some proof that you are a somewhat experienced sound person (thier house system is worth $100,000 +) they dont want some hack that knows everything pounding on the gear

If this were to come about thats where certification would come in handy....Not for the entertainment end but for the technical end
 
Dude,
Maybe the question to ask in reference to your figures (thread pg 3 or thereabouts) is "Is the drop in numbers significant?". Since 3000 is roughly only a little over 2/3 of one percent of the total (2,100,000+)- I wouldn't think the number large enough to have a real effect on the market. I wouldn't get excited over a full 1% change in the market. Now, at @ 100% increase in the past year - gas prices are significant and I am feeling those enough to adjust prices. just my .02
 
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