It's going down...
- Thread starter Dude Walker
- Start date
John, that's what I'm trying to figure out. Dude started this thread with a simple question...
There's 2 parts to that...last things first.
Marriage is down substantially - IMHO - because of a shift in values and morality. It wasn't until the late 60's - early 70's that the birth control pill gained wide acceptance. Before that, a guy knocked a girl up and there was no other societally acceptable option than to "do the right thing" and get hitched.
In 1973 abortion became legal with the Roe v. Wade decision ... again giving women an option besides marriage if they got pregnant. So it doesn't surprise me that the raw numbers for marriages are down. But I'd be interested to see how those numbers were offset with cohabiting couples and cohabiting couples with children together.
The real issue as it applies to the DJ industry is about "the wedding market". This would surmise that because there are fewer weddings, that there is a similar decline in the number of DJ's who are being booked for wedding gigs. I welcome to see some metrics that address that assumption.
My hunch is that as the number of working DJ's has increased (be they full-time, part-time or hobbyists) that the percentage of wedding receptions which have a hired person playing recorded music has gone UP, not down.
Now these hired individuals might not fit our "standard" of what a disc jockey is or does ... but if we only define a DJ in the strictest sense as a person who is hired to bring in sound equipment and sequence music, I think my hunch is correct.
So all these charts and graphs aside...I'm ready to move onto talking about better ways to convey the service WE offer is something worth paying for - or paying MORE for. Perhaps that's another thread...
Yes, and one man's garbage is another mans gold.
And you are a ????
oh, a dj too!
Proformance.
With all due respect...
It seems to me that you have more of an issue with Dude Walker, as opposed to the topic at hand.
Other people are also in disagree with Dude, and state why.
Again, put up or shut up. You say you have facts and better information to back it up. Where?
I have no problem in disagreeing with Dude. Just had an hour long discussion on the phone, re this issue and my thoughts.
Ask... They were in disagreement. BUT I can't yet find a factual basis to use.
Where is your info attained! Maybe it will back up MY theory that IS in disagreement?
The "balls" in your court??
Based on the most current Cohabitation & Marital Status report...
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_23/sr23_022.pdf
Here's the breakdown.
If I read those charts/graphs correctly........there is a glut of couples aged 20-24 who are shacking up together.
I've had great success with "older" couples who tie the knot in their 30's or even 40's. Less pretentious weddings, usually done at a single venue (W + R). They have been to other couple's weddings in the past, and they all tell me they want a non-cheesy event.
I've had great success with "older" couples who tie the knot in their 30's or even 40's. Less pretentious weddings, usually done at a single venue (W + R). They have been to other couple's weddings in the past, and they all tell me they want a non-cheesy event.
Dude,
I have to give you credit my friend, I don't think I have ever met a DJ that does more research then you. Even your charts have charts
. Are you going to be at this years Northern DJ Convention?
I have to give you credit my friend, I don't think I have ever met a DJ that does more research then you. Even your charts have charts
. Are you going to be at this years Northern DJ Convention?:: Devilish grin ::
So is it safe then to believe, when some arrogant "everybody wants to be me" DJ walks around talking loud about how they are "booked every weekend for the entire year" and their sales are bigger than ever....... But the records from the local government don't support the Weddings being undertaken in that DJs area ------- THAT DJ is full of it? Essentially exposing a liar?
curious thought......
Chris
So is it safe then to believe, when some arrogant "everybody wants to be me" DJ walks around talking loud about how they are "booked every weekend for the entire year" and their sales are bigger than ever....... But the records from the local government don't support the Weddings being undertaken in that DJs area ------- THAT DJ is full of it? Essentially exposing a liar?
curious thought......
Chris
Chris, I am hard pressed to find many dj's without open dates nearly every month.
They have to be one hell of a good sales person.
They have to be one hell of a good sales person.
No, only with Dude's meaningless speculation using numbers with no direct causal link to the things he suggests.
Dude proposes that a 0.05% decline in unqualified marriage licenses is hurting the mobile DJ industry.
Others have already shown you how statistically insigificant that is. (Likely it is even more insignificant compared to the number of "DJ-less" marriages that occur in one city in Nevada every single month.)
Color by numbers:
Garbage graphed is pictorial barbage.
Dude's population numbers have no direct causal link to Dude's assumptions about sales.
Dude has discovered that marriage is losing popularity in the USA? LOL Like no one saw that coming? (re post: Dan McKay).
So have I.
Dude just likes to ignore faults in his logic in favor of worthless name droppings about where the "numbers" come from. Dude says: "where's your eveidence" - well, chap it's your theory thus your evidence that needs to hold up.
His "data" and result doesn't match up. As usual Dude's book has a cover page and a conclusion but none of the required pages in between.
The number of marriage licenses issued is not important. What matters is how many result in significant money spent celebrating with parties. That number has seen a meteoric rise for mobile DJs for the last 3 decades. Oops! - I guess the CDC doesn't record sales data.
I'm dumb-founded that you (and Dude) claim to be so business minded yet neither of you has a clue about relevent market research. Sorry, won't help you.
Well, I can state with certainty that marriages / weddings are down here in Michigan, although the reasons are different (and better defined) than they are in the rest of the country.
One slant we haven't covered, at least not very well: DJ turnover. Every year, it seems, the same core group of DJs in the Yellow Pages return -- about 6 or 7 companies in my area. The rest of the page suddenly shows up one year and then are gone a year or two later. Again, I have no idea if this is normal in other areas, but the trend has been true in my county since I started! So does the population of DJs actually go up, or does it just seem like it because of so many new names? Are they offset by those who quit?
I find it a bit alarming that we cannot keep this discussion civil. I stay away from other chat forums for this precise reason. I can certainly see why some might disagree with Dude's premise. I'm a huge fan of skepticism! The data may also be different from state to state and even county by county, so what is true in Dude's neck o' the woods may be outlandish in yours! (And my state / county is definitely different from almost anywhere else in the union.) Let's try to keep focus here: the premise is that weddings, statistically, are down. The question on the table is: when do you think the situation will turn around?
I guess it's safe to assume that some dispute the basic premise itself. That's fine -- I can respect that. Let's just try and keep it classy and knock-off the personal attacks, OK?
For those of us who accept the basic premise, the answers seem as varied as the people answering the question! Again, this might be due, in part, to differences in our locations. Things will turn around in my state, for example, when businesses (and workers) quit leaving the state, and when THAT happens depends on a good many things. Our legislature must work to make our state more attractive to business. That's not going to happen until they shut up about raising taxes on business, not to mention giving businesses the same breaks that neighboring states do. So it might get worse before it gets better.
From what I hear in the REST of the country, things are not nearly as grim.
One slant we haven't covered, at least not very well: DJ turnover. Every year, it seems, the same core group of DJs in the Yellow Pages return -- about 6 or 7 companies in my area. The rest of the page suddenly shows up one year and then are gone a year or two later. Again, I have no idea if this is normal in other areas, but the trend has been true in my county since I started! So does the population of DJs actually go up, or does it just seem like it because of so many new names? Are they offset by those who quit?
I find it a bit alarming that we cannot keep this discussion civil. I stay away from other chat forums for this precise reason. I can certainly see why some might disagree with Dude's premise. I'm a huge fan of skepticism! The data may also be different from state to state and even county by county, so what is true in Dude's neck o' the woods may be outlandish in yours! (And my state / county is definitely different from almost anywhere else in the union.) Let's try to keep focus here: the premise is that weddings, statistically, are down. The question on the table is: when do you think the situation will turn around?
I guess it's safe to assume that some dispute the basic premise itself. That's fine -- I can respect that. Let's just try and keep it classy and knock-off the personal attacks, OK?
For those of us who accept the basic premise, the answers seem as varied as the people answering the question! Again, this might be due, in part, to differences in our locations. Things will turn around in my state, for example, when businesses (and workers) quit leaving the state, and when THAT happens depends on a good many things. Our legislature must work to make our state more attractive to business. That's not going to happen until they shut up about raising taxes on business, not to mention giving businesses the same breaks that neighboring states do. So it might get worse before it gets better.
From what I hear in the REST of the country, things are not nearly as grim.
I have never stated to have a good business mind. I do want to learn. I do realize that a good business mind is required for the business plan I have to be successful. I try to learn from all sorces.
Bob,
I totally agree, that the numbers Dude is using have a large "asterisk" behind them.
No we don't know how many would never have a reception.
We don't know how many Las Vegas weddings never will have a reception.
There are tons of "we don't know" in these numbers.
However, we do know, with solid numbers, the potential numbers of possible weddings / marriages.
The potential numbers, nationwide, are down. as Stu put forth. Each area is different. Many here have expressed a "boom". Is that due to the weddings/marriages being up?
OR
Could it be that dj got "lucky?
OR
Had a new marketing plan work?
OR.....
They suddenly start following up on leads?
We will never know. Impossible to prove, or disprove.
Potential perfrormances. This is the key word(s) Dude has based this thread on.
I had a client a few years ago, 2nd marriage, 3 weeks before event decide to "look" into a dj as opposed to a stereo and benifit vs cost.
I gave my best sales pitch. They said thanks but no. Sent a final email stating sorry I couldn't convince them the importance of a dj at their event. Wished them luck. Next day. Reply said they changed their mind and hired me.
Have you not had this happen???
Was this a "non job" that you speak of? Did I get lucky? Was it my sales skills? I can't prove any of the above! I can say, a marriage license was attained by the client, thus it was a "potential wedding".
My kid just turned 16. Was that a potential performance for someone? I say yes. There was a possibility that I could have had a 16th parth for him. If I didn't have a kid that turned 16, no possibility ever existed.
No marriage license. No possibility of a wedding performance.
BTW,
One of your main arguments against Dudes numbers seem to be relying on the moral decay (shacking up, sexual preferences etc.)
Well, have you never been called for a "commitment ceremony". It is a "marriage / wedding" of two that can not legally attain the license.
Dude's numbers wouldn't include this as a "possible performance gained". Do they? Where you get your "secret" numbers from?
Stu and others.
I apologize if you are seeing my posts as an attack on performance. I do not apologize for the tone of the questioning.
I want information. I want to learn. I WANT my DJ business to succeed. Some of you know, others do not.
long story short
I dj'd for many years, then due to money (lost job) I had to give up the biz and go over the road as a truck driver to support my family. 10 years. Maybe 2 days at home every two weeks. I finally got a local job, still driving, but where I can spend every night at home with my wife, with my kids.
10 years missed. Wife had an affair. Kids grew up with out a "dad" only a father. Etc. No fishing, no baseball, no help with homework... Local jobs like I have now are hard to come by, and easily lost. I ain't going over the road again! I also don't have "time" for ego's.
There are two people who have done more for my dj biz that I ever could have done alone. Cap and Dude.
I don't agree blindly with either of their advice. I always do follow up. But usually, they make some darn good sense, and have gone WAY beyond helping me learn the "new world" of djing.
I therefore, don't take kindly to someone that says that they have access to "better information" on a chat site, bash the provider, then "play ego games" with "Your not good enough" to get at it.
If you don't feel the information is "share-able" with the rest of us. Than why advertise it? Ego???
Sorry, I say put up or shut up to anyone. If this attitude prohibits me from being here, sharing what I feel is worthy of sharing, and learning from some good people, then so be it. I will leave. Just let me know.
Anyway...
Stu.
You do bring up good points.
I noticed "name changes" in the books several years ago. I actually do think this is a good topic...
"dj turnaround".
However, It really deserves a different thread... Would you care to start? You seem to have better grip than I.
Thanks, Dan! If you'd like to go ahead, you certainly have my permission. (Not that you need it! Just that I won't get miffed.)
When the new phone books come out, I'm like a big kid -- I've gotta flip right to the DJ section and check out my ad, see who else is in the book and see who isn't there that was last time. Totally goofy, I know. A guilty pleasure! In any case, I'm always shocked by how many newbies are there and how many are MIA from the last book.
There was also my brief stint as a sales / rental guy over at a local DJ toy store. We had a large consignment area, and when someone had a goodie up for sale, I'd try to remember what other clients had been looking for and try to match-up DJs to bargain gear. So to this day, when a DJ in my area goes out of business, I often get their list! (I took my e-mail list with me.) Over the last couple of years, I've seen more of these lists than any other time previously. In fact, I'd bet that from 2005 thru this year I've seen more of these lists than in the whole time I worked there (2000) and in-between.
On the upside, I got some really SWEET stuff!
When the new phone books come out, I'm like a big kid -- I've gotta flip right to the DJ section and check out my ad, see who else is in the book and see who isn't there that was last time. Totally goofy, I know. A guilty pleasure! In any case, I'm always shocked by how many newbies are there and how many are MIA from the last book.
There was also my brief stint as a sales / rental guy over at a local DJ toy store. We had a large consignment area, and when someone had a goodie up for sale, I'd try to remember what other clients had been looking for and try to match-up DJs to bargain gear. So to this day, when a DJ in my area goes out of business, I often get their list! (I took my e-mail list with me.) Over the last couple of years, I've seen more of these lists than any other time previously. In fact, I'd bet that from 2005 thru this year I've seen more of these lists than in the whole time I worked there (2000) and in-between.
On the upside, I got some really SWEET stuff!
Proformance said:
Bob, a decline of 800,000 marriages/weddings in relation to population is a bit larger than 0.05%.
Proformance said:
Ahhh..., but Bob, this is where your fixation comes shining through. This is not about SALES...it's about decreased potential.
Proformance said:
Bob, the factual statistics from the CDC - NCHS have been provided for all to ponder.
Bob, you made the statement that the numbers are UP...WAY UP! However, you have failed miserably, as per usual, in offering any significant basis to back up your claim(s).
Bob, you made the statement that YOU have access to "other evidence" that you are proctecting as "TRADE SECRETS". (LOL) Bull-Shtye
Bob, you repeat these fixated childish disparaging remarks without a shred of fact to back them up...
Do you really expect to be taken seriously??
Proformance said:
Bob,
I disagree. The number of marriage licences issued is the only legitimate resource for a marriage census benchmark.
As for "sales data"... C'mon now...you can do better than that. Your suggestion of sales data is IMPERFECT by sampling. EXAMPLE: If 100% of the MDJs in the USA filed their taxes reporting their wedding related earings... Oh wait... there is no "Wedding Sales" line on the tax forms & the last economic census took place in 2002. Darn...great theory though.
Bluster on Bob... Bluster on... you missed a few STRAWS...
DJStuCrew said:
Ahh..., someone that's using his noggin!
Even if, the numbers rebound nationally, there are areas of the USA that may continue to decline. Specific local market conditions will always play a role.
DJStuCrew said:
Valid point of contention.
ND has less than 60 state registered MDJs...yet Yellow Page listings vary from the mid - 60s to the high 80s. Of that pool of listed DJs, there are several that are not state registered...and vice versa.
There are scores of MDJs that exist within the cracks that never hit a quantifiable state of recognition beyond a business card or website... YET... they still absorb a portion of the potential marriages/weddings.
I believe that the rate of MDJ inception outpaces the rate of MDJ attrition.
Of the 17,000+ high schools in the USA. How many graduating classes produced at least ONE person with a pre-disposition for MDJ work this May/June?
Flyingdjdan said:
Ouch!...right in the giggle berries!
In reality no mobile is booked every weekend of the year we all know that
But those numbers just show weddings not events taking place so it really has very limited bearing on how many shows you can book in a year if you are willing to go beyond just weddings. To book those events it might require a small cut in rate and by God that wont happen
When a business refuses to diversify these are the kinds of stats they worry about
I guess I will be getting excommunicated now
The ones that worry me are the ones not in the book. In my market there are 10 listed and at least 30 more who are not
But I agree there is a high turnover. This business looks like a killer until you start paying the bills on it
Jeff, you are correct in your observation.
The CDC- NCHS numbers offers a benchmark.
However, what percentage of that benchmark turn into full blown events is another piece of the puzzle. A piece that is much more complex than getting a simple acknowledgement of benchmark marital statistics.
Proformance said:
You are correct. Many are/were unaware of the downturn. A trend that I've watched very closely for over 2 decades. If we are going to engage in dicussions of "who's you favorite idol"...it only seems prudent to discuss things that are directly related to our industry, as well.
I am curious to see what portion of your "id" responds next?
I can't wait :yes::yes:
It's only going to be me and Arnoldo this time, Jonah has left the company and gone back to school full time. Its a shame because he was really looking forward to hanging out with you again. Oh, well, I guess I will have to pick up the slack
