It's going down...

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Matt, there's a guy in St. Louis (Big Earl, I think) who was doing quite well with Nursing Homes, similar to what I was doing with preschools.

Please don't mock it.

Just ask Papa Deuce about his burdgeoning new business venture.

And while there may be an increase in the higher end weddings, not everyone can DJ at those weddings. If there's no really high end place in your market, or the high end weddings are those in which you don't feel comfortable and therefore don't persue, the laws of supply and demand for what's left will apply.

Hey, nothing would please me more than to see the market pay more for DJs, don't get me wrong, it's just that not everyone is a potential customer for this market. Not everyone is a DJ for this market. To those that are DJs for this market, God love ya. I was charging a handsome 4-figure amount before I had to retire.

Think outside the box. You can only lower your rates so far before it is no longer feasible to remain in business. You would then join the what, 80% of American businesses that end up failing? Or you can try to create new opportunities where none may have existed before.
 
John Allo said:
Supply and demand works in this situation. The less the demand, the more the supply increases, be it widgets, farts, or DJ gigs.

"clumsily mis-applied"
Click to expand...

John,

Please understand that my comments were in reponse to your post, however, not directed at you personally.

Supply & Demand is an often mis-undertsood and mis-applied catch phrase. When "labor" (service) is reduced to a "good" (commodity) the end result is never favorable.

This is EXACTLY why Supply & Demand does not apply in service related industries.

Why? For many, it is too difficult to seperate and quantify tangible (hard costs) from the intangible (labor).

Within the concept of Supply & Demand any entity capable of obtaining raw materials for production has a distinct advantage over a competiting entity that cannot obtain raw materials at the same rate. As long as those raw materials are obtained legally.




It simply comes down to credibility via integrity.

Entities that circumvent integrity create an artificial load on the MDJ market that is directly related to the wedding market.

Overpopulation of non-credible entities depresses the market price via & due to illegal activities.


For arguements sake...and clarity...let's call it counterfeiting.

"Something made (or done in MDJs case) in imitation of something else with intent to deceive."


Here's an excerpt from the Patent & Trademark Office:

http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/dcom/olia/ip_quotes.htm

“Counterfeiting costs our country hundreds of billion dollars a year. It has got a lot of harmful effects in our economy. Counterfeiting hurts workers, because counterfeiting undercuts honest competition, rewards illegal competitors. Counterfeiting hurts our – counterfeiting hurts consumers, as fake products expose our people to serious health and safety risks. Counterfeiting hurts the government. We lose out on tax revenue. We have to use our resources for law – of law enforcement to stop counterfeiting. Counterfeiting hurts national security, as terrorist networks use counterfeit sales to sometimes finance their operations.”




2 MDJs:

1 legit
1 non-legit in every way

Both pursue a client who has been conditioned to shop price first, quality second. The scale is tipped in the favor of the non-legit MDJ because the non-legit MDJs has circumvented many costs that his/her competitor shoulders as a credible business.

In many cases, clients become confused over the price disparities created between the companies.

When was the last time you purchased anything on-line?

Did you investigate whether or not the product was black market?...or did the thought even enter into the mix?

The first defense would be to say... I only buy from credible sources...

Yet, many of these sources are difficult to verify. In most cases popular accolade for an online seller offers a false sense of security.



John,

The $50+ beer is an example from my own market. There are KJs undercutting each other for $50+ beer.

As for insurance. Auto insurance in required. There are MDJ that don't even carry auto insurance or they allow it to lapse because they don't charge enough to pay their premiums.

In time, liability insurance will become a factor for all. Whether or not covering ones investment should or should not be legislated...it simply makes good business sense.

The entities that fail to carry coverage, in many cases, have worthless equipment & tapped out credit. Why, should a client bear the brunt of an entertainers negligence?

Lastly,

How a MDJ obtains their music is a fundamental component to overpopulation. Theft of music...Pirating music...Serial Duplication of music wrong. It allows unfettered access to an industry, which further creates an unfair & perpetual competative advantage.
 
But that still fails to adequately prove that the supply & demand theory doesn't apply, sorry.

Demand: the number of available gigs.
Supply: the number of DJs available for those gigs.

When demand decreases, there is a glut of supply in the market. Service or commodity.
 
To answer the original question.

I don't think that weddings will pick up. Due to a multitude of issues.

1. Cost of living is getting astronomical for the "typical" person/family.

2. People are waiting longer / living together longer. Thus the "1st mistake" marriage may be gone.

3. Same sex relationships are "generally" accepted now. Therefore no "cover" marriages.

4. Mom and Dad aren't paying (as they are broke too), therefore more smaller back yard functions... if at all.

5. Cheap low quality dj's are destroying market profitibility for the legit business. Causing bad rep's to be had by all. Making "price" a deciding factor as opposed to personality match, quality, service...

6. While population may be growing, it is getting "older". The "birth" rate in the 80's went down. Thus less possibilities.

What can be done?

Get into higher end events. Do more, be more, and offer more. (best option)
I feel the higher end client that respects quality and service will always be there, and ready to spend.

1. This market (IMO) will never be oversaturated because too many mdj's are not mentally capable of the business aspects required to run this type of business. (legally or otherwise).

2. They don't believe it can be done on a sustainable basis.

3. Servicing this type of client requires more effort, creativity, confidence, and ability. You will need to be an exellent speaker, entertainer, music-ologist, dj, salesman, etc. Being a dj will become more "work" and less "fun".

Most are "dj's" first. Business owners second. Not a business owner that happens to be in the "dj/ entertainment" arena.

Fill your off days with "other" types of dj jobs. (Still ends up being more work and cost)

1. Kids parties
2. Schools
3. Nursing homes
4. Sound reinforcement (seminars, business meetings, etc)
5. Clubs, bars, roller rinks, etc.

Lower rates to "get" more jobs. (YUK!)

1. Less service and quality to clients.
2. More jobs, more burnout.
3. Lower quality of client. (more bridezillas or don't care's)
4. More cost per event, (even tho most don't see it)
5. More stress, agrivation, headaches, chances for legal issues.

****************************************

Dude...
Time will heal the illegal music library issues. Ascap and bmi are going after the "mass offenders" of downloading to get the scare in the "younger" more prone to download and share. aka: Those that "normally" would be spending larger dollar amounts on the music produced. All in due time. They WILL be comming after us. Weddings being a multi billion a year industry will not be overlooked for long.

Library licensing will be a reality. When? Will I still be a dj?? Don't know. But I think sooner rather than later. Too much money is to be had.

Problem is: will this "regulation" be on their terms forced down our collective throat? Or will "we" ever get together and make a respectable proposal to them?:rofl:

I ain't holding my breath on the latter.

Me thinks the real question...

Can a person that wants to run a truly legit, solo operation survive the costs, headaches, and time it will take for a "thinning of the herd"? Will it be "worth it?"
 
John Allo said:
But that still fails to adequately prove that the supply & demand theory doesn't apply, sorry.

Demand: the number of available gigs.
Supply: the number of DJs available for those gigs.

When demand decreases, there is a glut of supply in the market. Service or commodity.
Click to expand...

John,

Ponder this...

Supply & Demand is a concept that Alfred Marshall published in 1890 as a result of the industrial revolution.

A world far removed from todays complex economics realities.



I find it interesting that you place MDJs as the supply. This is exactly where MDJs have created a demand for a wedding supply that is not there.

Perhaps a different radical perspective could be considered...

Supply is the number of available potential events...(fairly finite)

Equalibrium cannot be achieved when MDJ entities fail to evaluate their business endeavors basely solely on their autonomous financial productivity.

This is where I return to the initial arguement that Supply & Demand does not apply.


MDJs are playing by more than one set of rules in our current marketplace which exerts artificial financial effects & prevents proper Supply & Demand concepts to effectively take place. With the ultimate goal being market equalibrium.

This is where many MDJs fail miserably in accepting the original intent & concept of Supply & Demand. Their desire to DJ transcends economic indicators that illustrate an inability to autonomously self perpetuate their business.

Another ironic thing in all this is that despite "factual" dwindling wedding numbers...more MDJs seem to think they'll make it on less $$$ per event while they perform less overall events due to increased competition. So rather than facing the hard facts of non financial viability...these entities continue on ego as opposed to economics which is in direct defiance to the concept of Supply & Demand.
 
It aint about supply and demand!

It about being a "reputable" Dj who can perform the desired event!

Granted...there are price shoppers out there...but as "professionals"...do we really care who they get?? Yes we can be saddened by another "ruined" event...but it somehow sinks in to some people at the event..on why you maybe pay that extra $$ to get a better DJ!

Dude...since our markets are pretty close...I want to give you an example of today.....

I call a bar on which I am "advertising" my outdoor trailer! The owner tells me.."oh we have a dj who will do it for $300!"

I politely said "ok....but...and continued to "keep advertising!" But letting her know my "extras"...I actually "showed her the light!"

Shes sounds like a real great lady...and yes...she is a "price shopper!" Bu thankfully by me explaining my outdoor trailer in more detail...I set the hook! The idea is fresh in her head...and I can see her trying me out this year! And thats all I can hope for!

I need to help persuade these "typical" bar owners...to think outside the box...and not always price shop!

Dude...I have been very sucessful in explaining the need for a change in our area! Of course...this doesnt exactly hit your area "dead on!" But this is a small start!


I am also one that "price shops!" Dont we all want the best bang for our buck??

I am trying to figure out my price next year for my outdoor trailer...and I am in a pickle! I dont want to overcharge...but yet no one in this "immediate" area offers nothing like I do!

So I need to find a "fair" price....but a price where I can still let the small bars compete for bookings!

I have many many ideas...but right now...we'll see how the first few events go...and try to "set prices" for next year!

But as being a toddler...I can tell you.....theres no "particular" math equation for this dj industry...as there are so many variable factors!

I have actually booked my 50th gig....and I have been in the business...as you know.... 1 1/2 years!

Yes...I had to start with a special rate just to show my services....but it was only to get my name out there... and create a little "jazz" on my business!

My prices next year...are going to be at least $1000 or better! So it wasnt to undercut the other DJs in our area....it was the only way for me to "advertise" my business!

Just like with this outdoor trailer....I offered a "very low" deal for this trailer this year....just to "promote" the idea....I however know already that I will be close to doubling the price next year!

So yea again bottom line is......

Be a good "reasonable priced" Reputable Dj...and you should have no concerns!

The other wishy washy djs...will slowly disappear....and a new breed will respawn! Thats part of the cycle!

I have already seen one business in this area come and go! He was charging like $75-150 for a gig...and look where that got him!
 
Oh yea...and that dj wasnt very good either!

I went to one of his events...and he played these three songs in a row....


Outkast Gasoline
Fly like an Eagle
Shakira Hips dont lie

Yes this is the order he played them! Drinks were $5.00! The last two cds skipped! Go figure!

No wonder hes not up and running!

Oh after those songs...I left a note for the manager explaining my services, and cut a deal....I still havent got into that bar! :sqerr:

Its kinda weird...but I guess thats not the only bar in this town! :sqbiggrin:
 
Is there another sky falling?

The number of marriages post 1970 is UP - way UP.

As a percentage of population the RATE is down.

Not surprising given the large number of elderly baby boomers, and other census realities.
 
Proformance said:
Is there another sky falling?

The number of marriages post 1970 is UP - way UP.

As a percentage of population the RATE is down.

Not surprising given the large number of elderly baby boomers, and other census realities.
Click to expand...


Okay Bob, I'll bite...

The number of marriages is up??? Way up???

In what way?

Data Source: CDC MSVR Reports

Marriage Ratio 10.6/thousand
1970
203,302,020 population
2,158,682 marriages

Marriage Ratio 7.3/thousand
2006
298,400,000 population
2,155,682 marriages

Net loss (-3,000) weddings annually with 95,097,980+ more in population from 1970 - 2006. How is that more weddings?

In fact, 1980, 81 & 82 are the only years since 1970 that the marriage ratio equalled that of 1970. Every year since 1982 has experienced a wedding ratio decline.

Coincidentally, 1982 was the highest point in marriage numbers since 1970 with 2,480,338 weddings.

It appears that the CDC is the only citeable source for acceptable data on marriage statistics.

Please explain your position... I am curious to see what your angle is?
 
I am as busy as ever.

No complaints here on the declining numbers and yes, I am charging more every year.
 
It appears that the CDC is the only citeable source for acceptable data on marriage statistics.
Click to expand...


LOL

So you're making your business projections using information from the Centers for Disease Control [CDC] ?
 
SoftJock Rick said:
I don't think it ever will. If anything, I foresee a continuing downward spiral...
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, I'd agree with that assessment. But its not just fewer weddings, its fewer "big" weddings. Don't let anybody -- especially politicians -- kid you about where the economy stands and where it is headed. While we don't have huge UN-employment, what we do have is huge UNDER-employment. Raises began slowing in the early/mid 90's when companies both big and small discovered that they simply didn't need to do it anymore.

Now in 2007 and beyond, we're pretty much stuck with that as a normal way of doing business. The fallout in terms of spending is that things like "big" weddings are just not possible anymore, at least not for the portion of the population they used to be possible for. And it gets worse ...

Many couples who choose to have a "big" weddings have concluded that a "big" wedding means "wedding and dinner" as opposed to "wedding, dinner and entertainment." Is the sky falling? Maybe it really is this time.

Scott
 
Proformance wrote:
LOL

So you're making your business projections using information from the Centers for Disease Control [CDC] ?
Click to expand...

cdc keeps track of population trends. How the heck can someone predeict, let alone control any sort of outbreak if they don't know where, and how much population is out there and where they are located? Let alone age and other vital information.

Getting this information from them is probably more reliable than any other source.

Basing business decisions on the cdc? NO

Basing business decisions on information that was alrady centrally gathered at the cdc to save time of calling each county in your geographical operating area? That was smart.

Performance: Have you got a better source? Anyone else?

I have a friend in fema. I will call and check if they have any better options, but I doubt it.

The important thing is to do you OWN research. (that is if you really care to do a business plan, and projections for the future).

Somehow, basing decisions on the information from the cdc sounds a little better than basing dicisions on hearsay from a chat board.

Again... do your own research...if you dare (or care). I do.
 
Proformance said:
LOL

So you're making your business projections using information from the Centers for Disease Control [CDC] ?
Click to expand...

Bob,

Perhaps you were unaware that the US Census Bureau also bases it's numbers on the data contained at the CDC.

The CDC is the most concise repository for historical information regarding marriage & divorce statistics.

The following link is from the US Census Bureaus site.

http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/marr-div.html

The very first link on the marriage & divorce page sends you directly to the CDC website.

But don't take my word...see for yourself.


To address your question about business projections...

The reports contained within the CDC repository are instrumental in illustrating trends that supercede popular mis-interpreted myths...like that there are plenty of weddings to go around.

The natality statistics on the CDC can also help indicate a rise in future weddings when one takes into account mortality statistics for the age group.

Currently, the US is experiencing brides & grooms that were born in the early to mid 80's. The "potential" 1st time wedding client base can be statistically referenced to these numbers. However, one must also consider shifts in social economy, religion, popular culture fads...etc.

Apply the divorce rate to these numbers and interpretation becomes more difficult. People that get divorced do not always re-marry. However, the CDC also contains historical data pertaining re-marriages.



Bob, I will make a second request for the information that you alleged in post #28.

Proformance said:
Is there another sky falling?

The number of marriages post 1970 is UP - way UP.

As a percentage of population the RATE is down.

Not surprising given the large number of elderly baby boomers, and other census realities.
Click to expand...

As courtesy to the readers on this board, you owe an answer. You've made a defined contrary statement without any factual support.

So we are faced two possibilities:

A: You have factual information to the contrary, however, refuse to be a positive contributing influence.

B: Or your post...as in many posts, contains more fictional blustery than fact.
 
John,

Thank you for your intelligent & mature response...
 
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