It's going down...

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The stats being bounced around here are simply showing a trend in the number of marriages, without additional data it is difficult to extrapulate the effect on our industry. In 1970, the mobile DJ business was in it's infancy. Now it is generally the choice of entertainment for a wedding (across multiple price points). A -3000 annual difference in the number of weddings over the last 30 years, when spread out across our various markets is almost an insignifigent number.

I'm not sure what my point really was or if I even made one. These are just some of my thoughts on this topic after being up for 18+ hours. Forgive any typos or spelling, I'm on my handheld. Good night.
 
WaydeWest said:
In 1970, the mobile DJ business was in it's infancy. Now it is generally the choice of entertainment for a wedding (across multiple price points).
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Wayde,

I can appreciate your perspective, however, bands should be considered...as they presented a major entertainment presence in the early 1970's.

I would argue that most MOBILE DJs began via radio stations.

MDJs didn't even have a Yellow Page listing until around 1983.

There was no day of ascension for MDJs where MDJs appeared in strength & numbers. It happened over decades as an alternative, in many cases, to bands.


WaydeWest said:
A -3000 annual difference in the number of weddings over the last 30 years, when spread out across our various markets is almost an insignifigcent number.
Click to expand...

I disagree.

When you compare -3,000 weddings to 95+ million more people, the numbers seem more significant.

If the marriage ratio from 1970 existed today, we would experience marriage numbers in the realm of 3,158,800 annually.

Compared to the most recent marriage numbers that's a deficit of -1,000,118 marriages.

Multiple articles suggest that the average cost of a wedding is in the neighborhood of $26,000

Those insignificant missing weddings represent over $26 billion in wedding related goods & services.

That seems pretty significant...even if you cut the average cost of weddings in half.
 
If you have other factual information or resources for attaining wedding related / population statistics that I can garner information from, I would seriously be interrested in getting at it.
Click to expand...
Then you should buy it and not expect to get proprietary products for free just to prove a point.
He asked in the beginning for our observations and thoughts. You stated he was basing his observations on incorrect data and that weddings were up.
Click to expand...
The popularity of marriage is in decline since 1970? (Does “sexual revolution” ring a bell?)

Yet the use of mobile DJs at weddings didn’t start to take off until the 1980’s and enjoyed a meteoric rise right through the 1990’s.

So how does Dude reconcile a decline in marriage with a huge increase in weddings for DJs? Is he just going to skip over the fist 30 years and assume it only affects us now? It should be obvious that any decline in weddings to DJs is the result of something OTHER than a number he grabbed off the website of an unrelated health organization.

I recall on several occasions you called Dude, and myself out on other thread(s) requesting verifible information and "prove it" statements. Should not the same accountability be returned?
Click to expand...
Another “you first” response? Dude has never “proven” anything. He just wastes screen space (again) defending the CDC and NIH – as if somehow theses organizations were in doubt. It’s Dude’s conclusions that need evidence. But instead he rambles on about anything and everything except the supposition in question.

Dude’s arguments always follow the same pattern:

The data indicates the sky is blue. This data is irrefutable. The sky is falling because it’s blue. Do you have evidence to prove the sky is NOT blue? Then obviously you’re misinformed, and couldn’t possibly comprehend the gravitational dynamics of this complex system.

I, and some others here are fully capable of making (and wanting to make) decisions based on credible info. While we may disagree with the "end picture" or what the info states and represents, facts are facts.
Click to expand...

Numbers are numbers. “Facts” are created only when they are properly applied to the problem in question.

You are probably the exception. ….. requiring other DJ's to do the "dirty work", and absorb major costs and liabilities.
Click to expand...

Can I ask (actually, I already know the answer) why you (like Dude) have a total inability to absorb an alternative reality without insulting or demeaning the person who lives it?

Tom has not handed anyone his “dirty work” and neither is he exploiting people as you imply.

3000 annual difference in the number of weddings over the last 30 years, when spread out across our various markets is almost an insignifigent number.
Click to expand...

Not almost – it is entirely insignificant. Good call Wayde.

But here’s something else which appears to have been lost on Dude and Dan: There is an important difference between a “marriage” and a “wedding”. Dude’s number is useless, yet he walks it all over the map.

FlyigDJDan: Wake up kid. “Living the dream” doesn’t happen if your stuck living in one.
 
I would argue that most MOBILE DJs began via radio stations.
Click to expand...

Based on what? It seems more plausible that they began as students and music consumers who like working the party crowd.

MDJs didn't even have a Yellow Page listing until around 1983.
Click to expand...

We didn't have a YP category but we were still listed. We were listed under entertainment headings until those categories were over-run by escorts and porn services.

There was no day of ascension for MDJs where MDJs appeared in strength & numbers. It happened over decades as an alternative, in many cases, to bands.
Click to expand...

Day of "ascension" ?? Its' not a religion - it's just music. By 1985 there were well over 1,000 mobile DJs with an identifiable profile in my home state alone. Not bad for the first decade.


When you compare -3,000 weddings to 95+ million more people, the numbers seem more significant.
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Dude - that's 0% until you get to the 5th decimal place.

Besides, you're number is 3,000 marriages not 3,000 weddings. Try to stay within the limits of your own "facts".

If the marriage ratio from 1970 existed today, we would experience marriage numbers in the realm of 3,158,800 annually.
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There are 8 million people in metropolitan New York City alone. If all 3,000 marriages lost this year were in NYC - it would still be 0% until you reach the 4th decimal.
 
Bob,

If you go back & read the very first post in this thread and respond the initial question, not it's author, you might illustrate this intelligence that you infer you possess.

For those without a "back" button on their browser...

Dude Walker said:
When do you think the wedding market will begin to rebound nationally?

Marriage is down substantially...

30% since 1970
Click to expand...

Bob,

It would be nice to read a post from you that contains supporting argument for your position as opposed to a cantankerous attitude based in ignorance towards an individual. OR At the very the least...links to what you cite as your sources.

You have yet to support your statement that marriages/weddings are up.

But alas...nothing...

What you have proven, by your lack of input, is that you do not possess the knowledge or substantial basis to support your contrary view, which makes your position or lack thereof refutable.


So Bob!

Answer one question...

Has there been an increase or decrease in total marriages/weddings since 1970 to present?

Please support your position.
 
Then you should buy it and not expect to get proprietary products for free just to prove a point.
Click to expand...

Never said I wanted information for free. Never said I was unwilling to pay. I did ask where I could get access to the information, if you were willing to share.

Obviously you are not. That's fine by me... Your perogative to keep your "source" secret. Business "trade secrets" are allways good to be had. I was just hoping to get access to unknown knowlege base.

The popularity of marriage is in decline since 1970? (Does “sexual revolution” ring a bell?)

Yet the use of mobile DJs at weddings didn’t start to take off until the 1980’s and enjoyed a meteoric rise right through the 1990’s.

So how does Dude reconcile a decline in marriage with a huge increase in weddings for DJs? Is he just going to skip over the fist 30 years and assume it only affects us now? It should be obvious that any decline in weddings to DJs is the result of something OTHER than a number he grabbed off the website of an unrelated health organization.
Click to expand...


Again, IMO, this is what this thread was intended to be, a discussion of opinions, based in declining actual wedding numbers in relation to the dj business.

Other extenuating circumstances... DUH! (Please see past posting in this thread where I stated other extenuating things, including same sex couples.)

How does all this fit together... extenuating circumstances, and the fact that marriage numbers are down. Discussion of opinions! That was asked in the beginning. "Here are my conclusions. What do you think?"

Another “you first” response? Dude has never “proven” anything. He just wastes screen space (again) defending the CDC and NIH – as if somehow theses organizations were in doubt. It’s Dude’s conclusions that need evidence. But instead he rambles on about anything and everything except the supposition in question.

Dude’s arguments always follow the same pattern:

The data indicates the sky is blue. This data is irrefutable. The sky is falling because it’s blue. Do you have evidence to prove the sky is NOT blue? Then obviously you’re misinformed, and couldn’t possibly comprehend the gravitational dynamics of this complex system.
Click to expand...

Again, see above response, and that this was to be a discussion of opinions taking given cdc information and other extenuating circumstances.

You say Dude is wrong in his assesment. Fine. Why? What do you base your opinion on? Right now... nothing I can lend credibility to. (If one has to back an "opinon" up with "facts" and the "prove it" mentality that you are using).

I fully accept the other opinions here as valid. They state it is opinion, based on their observations. Others have disagreed. And are accepted by me as credible.

You, Sir, are the one stating you have factual information to the contrary, but unwilling even share a link as to where it could be "purchased". By your "rules of engagement" you are not being credible. You are stating your "opinion" is the right one. Prove it!

Numbers are numbers. “Facts” are created only when they are properly applied to the problem in question.
Click to expand...

If the critera for making a statement, judgement, or posting on this or any other chat site is that must be backed up with irreputable FACTS, then 99% of the postings are bull.

Properly applied? By who's guidelines? What rules? Where are they so I may know the proper way to make a statement, That is... If I ever can (which I doubt). Are they properly applied only if they come up with "what or who's" side?

Can I ask (actually, I already know the answer) why you (like Dude) have a total inability to absorb an alternative reality without insulting or demeaning the person who lives it?
Click to expand...

Can you please explain to me, If that is my thinking... Why the hell am I on here and other chat sites? If my way was the only way, and the right way, I sure wouldn't be having the time to sit on a chat board. I would be booked every day and night, running a national multi op, and sitting on the beach in Jamaica.

Waterman, IL is a far cry from Jamaica.

I fully accept others statements. I come here to share my opinions based on what "my life" has handed me. Share with others, and learn from their "experiences" as they can be applied to my situation.

I accept my "reality" as it is. I accept your "reality" as yours. Which is real? What is "reality" to a kid playing a video game? When you are involved in a good book or movie? Do you not get "sucked in" at times"??

I do ask (and am open to) what part of my reality can benifit from yours! I am sorry you do not feel that any of my "reality" will not fit into yours.


Tom has not handed anyone his “dirty work” and neither is he exploiting people as you imply.
Click to expand...

Ok, My intent was to give Goodnight a compliment. Obviously not taken that way by you, and thus possible by him.

He has figured a successful way in which he can profit. Keep his price low, expenses low and decrease his liability.

exploiting people as you imply
Click to expand...
Getting people to willingly accept liability exposure is not "exploting" it was interpeted by you.

Some people are great dj's and terrible at business operations. (aka sales, advertising, marketing). Goodnight may have capatilzed (I think) on those type of dj's. That don't want the hassle of the "booking". It is great. I would probably look into that as an option if he were in my area. My marketing skills suck, and I could possible benifit from his business plan, and methods of operation. Money and time spent on learning "how to" could be successfully used elsewhere!

If he is happy, his dj's are happy, and the clients are happy... awesome!

I will stick with the assesment (opinion, not based in any factual citeable or unciteable source) that he is the acception to profit and low price co existing in the legal dj arena.


But here’s something else which appears to have been lost on Dude and Dan: There is an important difference between a “marriage” and a “wedding”. Dude’s number is useless, yet he walks it all over the map.
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No, not lost on me. Just your assessment of me. But, I will bite...

Please explain the difference to me, if you will.
Wedding vs. marriage.

How either is or is not a potential performance.



FlyigDJDan: Wake up kid. “Living the dream” doesn’t happen if your stuck living in one.
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Ok, if I am dreaming and need to wake up, You and Dude Walker are mearly parts of MY dream. If that is the case...

Isn't your existance just part of my imagined reality?

Sorry, got to go... The Alarm clock is going off. :sqwink:

BTW. TIME magazine must be off their rocker also. In the May 28th, 2007
issue they have an article and chart based on a source...

The U.S. Dept of Health and Human Services. (See prior link from Dude that goes to the CDC.:sqerr:

Goodnight: Thanks for the link! Appreciated!
 
When do you think the wedding market will begin to rebound nationally?

Marriage is down substantially...

30% since 1970
Click to expand...


Your question is unrelated to your "fact" (number).

You've assumed that "marriage" and "wedding market" are the same thing or at least directly proportional. They are not.

History is replete with periods where marriages have declined even while weddings have booned, and vice versa.
 
You've assumed that "marriage" and "wedding market" are the same thing or at least directly proportional. They are not.

History is replete with periods where marriages have declined even while weddings have booned, and vice versa.
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How so?
 
You guys have rambled for 7 pages now...and I dont see a real winner!


Yes weddings may be down....but isnt there a higher population now...that could result in more weddings in the near future??

I dont know....but yea...Dude...you did bring light on the situation....but I dont think too much is being achieved with all this rambling!
 
Proformance said:
Your question is unrelated to your "fact" (number).

You've assumed that "marriage" and "wedding market" are the same thing or at least directly proportional. They are not.

History is replete with periods where marriages have declined even while weddings have booned, and vice versa.
Click to expand...


I know EXACTLY what Bob is talking about........well, maybe not???

Here in California, I get a LOT of parties that are basically ceremonies for people who have been shacked up for 20 years. Some of them even had kids out of wedlock (illegitimate bastards....LOL). They decide to tie the knot, officially. These weddings fall out of the normal loop. They probably don't wind up in the CDC or Census Bureau statistics. Maybe they continue to file as separate taxpayers because the Tax Code favors non-married persons.
 
:happy1:

Younger people are not marrying as they did when their parents were their age. Also, older folks who marry may just have a JOP or notary public sign ze paper. :evil5:

And there are the "po' folks" weddings to consider as well ~ reception consists of family and friends who bring food and celebrate in the living room. If the B&G are church or synagogue members they may be allowed the use of a social hall.

In our experience, the upscale receptions with dining and dancing are dwindling. The cost of living has surpassed many people's ability to pay for it around here. I guess we all miss the big, party hearty-type receptions of the '90s. But many people cannot afford 'em anymore. The rental hall, the food, the drink, the entertainment... you're talking a lot of money ~ money that many B&Gs don't have.

Do B&Gs "need" a DJ or entertainment company? No.

Just some thoughts. :)
 
You guys have rambled for 7 pages now...and I dont see a real winner!


Yes weddings may be down....but isnt there a higher population now...that could result in more weddings in the near future??

There was a decent converstation going before the validity of the question was made.

I honestly doubt Dude was looking for a "win". Original question was not a question of right or wrong, win or loose. Maybe (it happens often) I am wrong. But I don't see how a win can be had unless your booked every weekend, and be willing to share what you are doing to make it!

DJMC.

Trying to understand this "weddings" vs "marriages" thing.

Am I correct in that

Wedding = ceremony, reception, party???

And

Marriage = Court house, no reception???

If this is the case, There still is the posibility for an engagement to be done, even if it is in one's back yard. There still is a "celebration" that "may" require entertainment. Even for same sex couples. (aka commitment ceremony.)

However, No marriage or wedding... No "extra" reason to celebrate.

Either way, I still think we are getting too heavy into the symantics of the question.

what is your definition of ...
Click to expand...
 
Flyingdjdan said:
You guys have rambled for 7 pages now...and I dont see a real winner!


Yes weddings may be down....but isnt there a higher population now...that could result in more weddings in the near future??

There was a decent converstation going before the validity of the question was made.

I honestly doubt Dude was looking for a "win". Original question was not a question of right or wrong, win or loose. Maybe (it happens often) I am wrong. But I don't see how a win can be had unless your booked every weekend, and be willing to share what you are doing to make it!

DJMC.

Trying to understand this "weddings" vs "marriages" thing.

Am I correct in that

Wedding = ceremony, reception, party???

And

Marriage = Court house, no reception???

If this is the case, There still is the posibility for an engagement to be done, even if it is in one's back yard. There still is a "celebration" that "may" require entertainment. Even for same sex couples. (aka commitment ceremony.)

However, No marriage or wedding... No "extra" reason to celebrate.

Either way, I still think we are getting too heavy into the symantics of the question.

what is your definition of ...
Click to expand...






I honestly doubt Dude was looking for a "win". Original question was not a question of right or wrong, win or loose. Maybe (it happens often) I am wrong. But I don't see how a win can be had unless your booked every weekend, and be willing to share what you are doing to make it!

DJMC.




What I meant to say was.....


Let me draw a little story of what I have learnt so far!

Last year I offered special deals just to get bookings...call it a promotional waiver....or call me a Bottomfeeder....I'll take either!


So last year......I did 23 bookings my rookie year! Which is very awesome....considering this is where I thought I'd be after this year!

I understand...that it takes time to get noticed and all....but somehow this BottomFeeding helped me get my legs walking!

Now this year I have 27 bookings....which is also good! Because since last year I have basically doubled my prices!!

So since I have advertised this outdoor trailer.....I have had some inquiries from private parties!

Now what I am trying to say...but I am babbling....is......I am now the second highest paid dj in this area....and when people call me for prices....most of them complain about the highest paid djs quotes!

So since he is so high (our judgment) I am sorta getting more inquiries....however I lose out too....since they say well....xx DJ said they would do it for $XXX! You all know this line!

So basically the highest paid DJ and I...are obviously seeing the decline...since our prices are higher! But I guarantee you...I drop my prices again....and I would be booked every weekend!

So some of us DJs have jumped on this PM boat....and then our bookings went down.....and then we ask ourself "WTF!" Yea we are getting paid more....but we are losing insight on whats being booked!

Honestly if the highest paid DJ seen my tour book this year....he'd be susprised on what he is losing out on!

I respect him as an idividual...but business is business! Just like if you were in my market....or lol....or I am in "your" market! *evil grin..but I still love ya*

And I know Dude has a very "respectable" business...and a very "reputable" business! But I also know he is a higher end paid DJ...which turns some clients stomaches!

At this time I make an announcement! I WOULD STILL HAVE DUDES BACK ANYTIME OF THE DAY! DUDE SHOULD ALREADY KNOW THIS!!


But Dude...maybe you have seen a decline since us "bottom feeders" have been pickin them up?? Just a thought!

BTW...the highest paid DJ in my direct market is not Dude....so do not correlate Dude with the above mentioned DJs!

Dude is close to my market area....or I should say..."I am close to Dudes market area!" *evil grin* ;p

So I kinda have an idea on the mindset of at least a handful of clients!
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DJMC said:
Here in California, I get a LOT of parties that are basically ceremonies for people who have been shacked up for 20 years. Some of them even had kids out of wedlock (illegitimate bastards....LOL). They decide to tie the knot, officially. These weddings fall out of the normal loop. They probably don't wind up in the CDC or Census Bureau statistics. Maybe they continue to file as separate taxpayers because the Tax Code favors non-married persons.
Click to expand...

DJMC,

I'm curious about your statement, tie-ing the knot officially.

Is there are marriage license involved...making it official?

Just looking for a better insight into your post.


Pursuant to US CODE TITLE 17 > CHAPTER 1 > § 107 Limitations on exclusive rights: Fair use

Here's part of what FlyingDan referred to:
TimeWeddingCmp.jpg
 
Here in Michigan, weddings are down for two reasons: our crippled economy and a dwindling population. The economy has crushed our job market -- we're the leader of the nation in businesses shutting down or moving. We are also the leader of people moving out of state for better opportunities. So those who stay have less money and, therefore, less buying power. If they're planning a wedding, an iPod might look like a good option since DJs average about $800.00 in our area.

I wrote a whole rant about it in this month's Mobile Beat. (See "The Frill Is Gone.")

Of course, this hasn't always been the case! In fact, we were boomin' in the '70s when I first started my DJ business, and my overall volume of weddings peaked in the late '90s. I only saw a substantial drop after 9/11/01. As some clients were indeed corporates -- some had offices or people in the WTC -- I thought my slippage was due to the terrorist attacks. Then I noticed that my regular wedding business was declining. Finally getting a CLUE, I called around and found out that my fellow DJ colleagues had indeed lowered their rates, sometimes quite substantially. This explained why my phone was ringing just as much as before, but I wasn't closing nearly as often.

Luckily, my overhead had dropped substantially, so I was able to drop my own rates and still survive OK. Rates have remained stable so far, but now we've got people opting for iPods and jukebox rentals for their parties, so it's likely to get worse before it gets better.

Will it rebound? Certainly! It is inevitable, especially with a growing population. Everything cycles. It's just a matter of surviving until the next upswing. I think the true pros will find a way.

P.S.

I'm working on an article about a rental jukebox that a buddy of mine created in a "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" move. He's mass producing them and is planning on offering them for sale. Remember: you heard it here FIRST! :)
 
this is interesting

coming from someone such as you Adam LOL!!:sqwink:
DJMN said:
You guys have rambled for 7 pages now...and I dont see a real winner!


Yes weddings may be down....but isnt there a higher population now...that could result in more weddings in the near future??

I dont know....but yea...Dude...you did bring light on the situation....but I dont think too much is being achieved with all this rambling!
Click to expand...
 
My numbers for "upscale" weddings are way down (12 last year to 2 this year)

My numbers for "lower end" weddings are way up (I dont have the numbers in front of me but at least doubled)

My numbers for corporates, anniversaries, Birthday Parties etc are up a fair bit (again I dont have the numbers but at least 20% so far)

With 14 already on the books for 2008 the trend seems to be continuing ( all weddings so far)

It dosent matter if the budget for the event is $50,000 or $5,000 my price is the same unless they want some of the advanced services

My point is if you are focusing only on upscale weddings you might see a sharp decline in the next few years in most markets and if you treat every wedding as if it were upscale you might see a boom

But if you put all your eggs in one basket.....
 
2,226,000 weddings occurred in the US from June 2004 to June 2005 (CDC) spending approximately $85 Billion (Not counting the honeymoon!) The number of weddings for this period Dropped by over 16,000 from the 2003-2004 season. If you wish to include all the items a bride will purchase 6 months prior to 6 months after her wedding the total would exceed the 120 Billion dollar mark


Just a snibbet from a paid marketing source I use.

Paul
 
Jeff Romard said:
My point is if you are focusing only on upscale weddings you might see a sharp decline in the next few years in most markets and if you treat every wedding as if it were upscale you might see a boom

But if you put all your eggs in one basket.....
Click to expand...

Jeff,

Thanks for your input.

You are correct that there are a limited supply of high end events. The further down the price pyramid you go, you increase the volume of events.

However, this is not intended to be a pricing thread.

This is about the marital statistics in decline in the greater sense in the USA.

I'm currently working on information from Canada & Europe.

I'm curious if this is a localized trend or wider.



There are two fatal mistakes that many MDJs make:

1) denying that "competition" exists.

2) reacting incorrectly when "competition" is acknowledged/discovered.

This isn't rocket science:

(total events) / (total entertainers) = ( potential event per entertainer)


In a fairly finite market if one entertainer is booking more events...other's have less potential. I will agree that the concept of Supply & Demand can be applied at this point.

However, performing fewer events creates a demand for more revenue per event to sustain business operations and wages. This is where Supply & Demand fails. Why? Because MDJs cannot force their competitors out of business on price. Why? Because MDJs will find a 2nd, 3rd & 4th source of revenue to maintain a failing venture.

I know of one MDJ that has performed one "paid" event in the past 18mos. His next event is in August. He's making a cash outlay for his YP listing & other marketing, music...etc. Basically he's pumping in $$$ and netting a goose egg.

This is where many MDJs would rather "own" less than participate in more...

Which is, in a sense, a race to zero.

I can fully accept that any given MDJ is doing more events than previous years or their competitors. However, doing twice as many events at half price (arbitrary example) nets the same revenue in the end.

So this begs the question "why"?

Why work twice as hard to maintain a lower rate obtain, retain, maitain a market share that cannot survive the long term on less revenue?


Gettting back to the original post.

The downturn has effected other wedding vendors. So that leads one to believe that this downturn is affecting a broader portion of the wedding/marriage market than DJs.

Imagine the revenue impact that could be realized if the wedding/marriage numbers returned to the marriage rate of 1970... or at the very least, the 137 year average of 9.78/thousand. Imagine how nearly 800,000 more marriages/weddings would affect the current wedding market.
 
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