15 Jobs that will Disappear over the next 19 years

[Valerie Hicks]

But no reason a driver couldn't collect and deliver "stuff" .. and a driverless setup used to move the "stuff" between those destinations.

then you're doubling up on labor. Akin to hiring a driver and an assistant riding along to do the manual lifting. That would make adding the driverless equipment no longer economical.

Are you going to transfer the responsibility of adding the technology to the dairy farmer? They need to have a robotic equipped milk room and person on staff to oversee in order to sell their milk?

 

[steve149]

then you're doubling up on labor. Akin to hiring a driver and an assistant riding along to do the manual lifting. That would make adding the driverless equipment no longer economical.

Are you going to transfer the responsibility of adding the technology to the dairy farmer? They need to have a robotic equipped milk room and person on staff to oversee in order to sell their milk?

Maybe in your example, but most materials go through a spoke and hub distribution system. Driverless between the hubs would seem to be an ideal starting place.

 

[Valerie Hicks]

Not around here .. many of our highways are congested/bottleneck with tractor trailers and very few obey the speed limit.

As for icy conditions, there are already sensors in the drivetrain for all-wheel drive cars that adjust for wheel slippage. Couple that with road sensors, cameras, lidar, radar, etc. .. I will take a driverless vehicle over a human controlled one almost every time.

Our semi may be far from most modern, but I can tell you I'd sure take a human in most cases of inclement road conditions that we've experienced. We rarely see a wheel spin light unless we're stuck--if it's while we're driving and hit ice, we've already reacted. A possible advantage for automation is being able to develop independent braking routines of the truck & trailer and maybe...just maybe....occasionally prevent a jack knifed truck. Not sure at what expense though, in terms of living, breathing traffic surrounding the truck.

 

[Valerie Hicks]

Maybe in your example, but most materials go through a spoke and hub distribution system. Driverless between the hubs would seem to be an ideal starting place.

that's exactly my point...the video implies jobs would be obsolete....and they largely won't be in many of their examples. They won't be as high of numbers, but there are many cases where you need a person (and many cases a person is cheaper than technology).

 

[steve149]

that's exactly my point...the video implies jobs would be obsolete....and they largely won't be in many of their examples. They won't be as high of numbers, but there are many cases where you need a person (and many cases a person is cheaper than technology).

That's why I said in the 2nd post the timeline is "optimistic"

 

[ittigger]

Not around here .. many of our highways are congested/bottleneck with tractor trailers and very few obey the speed limit.

As for icy conditions, there are already sensors in the drivetrain for all-wheel drive cars that adjust for wheel slippage. Couple that with road sensors, cameras, lidar, radar, etc. .. I will take a driverless vehicle over a human controlled one almost every time.

Believe it or not - truckers that go into the NE collect hazardous duty pay.

 

[ittigger]

The one thing about self Driving Trucks that many companies will gravitate towards is that it has been tough for many trucking companies to staff the last few years. There is certainly a shortage of long haul truck drivers in many parts of the country. So many people don't want to do the job. It's long hours, lots of traveling. Away time from family, and companies have pretty much put a cap on how much truck drivers can earn at this point. 49 to 52 cents a mile seems to be advertised a lot where I live...Considering DOT restriction of I believe 660 miles a day max with what a driver can drive...at 52 cents a mile pay that is $343.20 assuming they can drive 660 miles in one day. Overall, potential to earn $60,000 to $80,000 a year or so isn't bad for the job, but being out on the road and away from family is the biggest draw back with the profession. Plus...driving a big rig all the time in high traffic situations, and dealing with jackass drivers out on the road all over the country I am sure can be exhausting at times.

I can see where many companies will move to automation, BUT there are going to be caveats to it. All it takes is a major error, and catastrophic accident to get the populous riled up and wanting to ban the practice. Major law suits will happen. ...I just think it's going to be a LONG time before we get to the point that 50%+ of the trucks on the road are automated.

Also, with the cost of the technology, if they are still going to have a person on the truck...Where is the money advantage for the companies? ...Will they be able to employ people for less compensation as truck drivers, and over time they will see the value in it?

Truck drivers can drive for 10 hours at a time and then they must rest. Unless they're sleeping 14, they're going to get much more than 660 miles a day. While you're complaining about high traffic, being out on the road, etc - many of these drivers love their jobs.

 

[steve149]

Believe it or not - truckers that go into the NE collect hazardous duty pay.

It should be bi-lateral ...

 

[Ausumm]

all of these jobs will be gone for people. So what are we going to do if most everyone is going to be unemployed? The world may look very different by the year 2038.

Ever see the movie "Surrogates"??

 

[adj2ent]

I drive thoughtout the Northeast for my business and for my rep work. So I am on the Northeast Corridor all the time. Between the traffic, construction, accidents & detours near any of the cities it Is constant during the daytime hours when deliveries have to happen. That is when businesses are open to receive deliveries. Now, my brother-In-law is a trucker so we talk often since we are both on the road. As Val said trucks have governors so they can only go but so fast. Truckers biggest issues are cars who cut in front of them, brake, follow to close, ride in the blind spot. The list goes on but the main problem is the unpredictability of the other drivers in cars and road due to construction/accidents. Something no self driving system may not be able to handle. Now hub to hub in the middle of no where where the speed limit is 75 or 85 no problem. But that won’t save you as much as you think. Really all that should be shipped via rail. But what you are forget no one is putting a gun to our head saying this must be done. It’s is a choice they pick to save money to increase profits. But as many things as presented what will be the future many factors will come into play. Autonomous vehicles & highways were presented at the worlds fair way back in the 1930’s.
As for what people will be doing when there jobs are elimated that boils down to education. There are plenty of jobs in the tech sector if you have the training & education. So it all starts in school with lots of math, science & stem to prepare for the future.

 

[steve149]

I drive thoughtout the Northeast for my business and for my rep work. So I am on the Northeast Corridor all the time. Between the traffic, construction, accidents & detours near any of the cities it Is constant during the daytime hours when deliveries have to happen. That is when businesses are open to receive deliveries. Now, my brother-In-law is a trucker so we talk often since we are both on the road. As Val said trucks have governors so they can only go but so fast. Truckers biggest issues are cars who cut in front of them, brake, follow to close, ride in the blind spot. The list goes on but the main problem is the unpredictability of the other drivers in cars and road due to construction/accidents. Something no self driving system may not be able to handle. Now hub to hub in the middle of no where where the speed limit is 75 or 85 no problem. But that won’t save you as much as you think. Really all that should be shipped via rail. But what you are forget no one is putting a gun to our head saying this must be done. It’s is a choice they pick to save money to increase profits. But as many things as presented what will be the future many factors will come into play. Autonomous vehicles & highways were presented at the worlds fair way back in the 1930’s.
As for what people will be doing when there jobs are elimated that boils down to education. There are plenty of jobs in the tech sector if you have the training & education. So it all starts in school with lots of math, science & stem to prepare for the future.

I still maintain it's WHEN, not IF. Autonomous vehicles constantly learn .. as opposed to real drivers that tend to have more issues as they age and enter the driving pool on the shakier side to begin with. They don't have bad days, don't drink, don't eat, don't shave in the car. I expect augmenting systems to be standard, possibly even mandated, in the next 5-10 years (car will drive if you can't) and through that learning, will be able to out do almost any driver in 15 years or so. I have spent time with AI and machine learning, took courses in college for my degree, and even recently, supported one of the industry's leading AI platforms, so this is more than a guess.

 

[Valerie Hicks]

I drive thoughtout the Northeast for my business and for my rep work. So I am on the Northeast Corridor all the time. Between the traffic, construction, accidents & detours near any of the cities it Is constant during the daytime hours when deliveries have to happen. That is when businesses are open to receive deliveries. Now, my brother-In-law is a trucker so we talk often since we are both on the road. As Val said trucks have governors so they can only go but so fast. Truckers biggest issues are cars who cut in front of them, brake, follow to close, ride in the blind spot. The list goes on but the main problem is the unpredictability of the other drivers in cars and road due to construction/accidents. Something no self driving system may not be able to handle. Now hub to hub in the middle of no where where the speed limit is 75 or 85 no problem. But that won’t save you as much as you think. Really all that should be shipped via rail. But what you are forget no one is putting a gun to our head saying this must be done. It’s is a choice they pick to save money to increase profits. But as many things as presented what will be the future many factors will come into play. Autonomous vehicles & highways were presented at the worlds fair way back in the 1930’s.
As for what people will be doing when there jobs are elimated that boils down to education. There are plenty of jobs in the tech sector if you have the training & education. So it all starts in school with lots of math, science & stem to prepare for the future.

Plus the big ones like JB Hunt (2nd largest hauler in the US) say it's impossible to replace the human factor.....at this point they don't foresee that as a feasible direction to go.

 

[steve149]

Plus the big ones like JB Hunt (2nd largest hauler in the US) say it's impossible to replace the human factor.....at this point they don't foresee that as a feasible direction to go.

I'd bet that some buggy manufacturers argued it would be impossible to replace the horse ..

 

[Proformance]

Automation isn't the looming problem, violence is. Terrorism and other rage attacks are at an all time high because we don't take mental health seriously. Imagine what our society becomes when the largess of the population has no meaningful work or life purpose save but to wait for the next living wage check from the ruling technology class. Trickle down techonomics is just as big a lie as trickle down economics - and if you think I'm of a liberal persuasion - you'd be wrong. An automated society would be a disaster - unless of course you send everyone into outer space to colonize Mars.

This is what we have for a government - people who think our future lies in building more Casinos and colonizing Mars. I don't know about you - but, Mars is not my backup planet. "Alexa! F*** off!"

 

[steve149]

Automation isn't the looming problem, violence is. Terrorism and other rage attacks are at an all time high because we don't take mental health seriously. Imagine what our society becomes when the largess of the population has no meaningful work or life purpose save but to wait for the next living wage check from the ruling technology class. Trickle down techonomics is just as big a lie as trickle down economics - and if you think I'm of a liberal persuasion - you'd be wrong. An automated society would be a disaster - unless of course you send everyone into outer space to colonize Mars.

This is what we have for a government - people who think our future lies in building more Casinos and colonizing Mars. I don't know about you - but, Mars is not my backup planet. "Alexa! F*** off!"

So we don't take advantage of technology that can potentially make things better, because it might make it more difficult for someone who can't cope or keep up?

 

[Proformance]

So we don't take advantage of technology that can potentially make things better, because it might make it more difficult for someone who can't cope or keep up?

This is not a "coping" problem, it's a dystopia. Our current trajectory predicts a permanent underclass of people who are economically useless. Their labor input will simply not be needed no matter how adept they are at keeping up. No society will be able to sustain this kind of bifurcation.

History is replete with examples of dystopia being a self-resolving condition: what can't be resolved politically usually gets resolved violently.

 

[Proformance]

Driverless between the hubs would seem to be an ideal starting place.

Especially for hijackers.

 

[steve149]

Especially for hijackers.

If no one is onboard, then everything can be locked up tight. Hijacking typically requires a vehicle to be stopped .. somewhere. If it's only at rest at hubs, the probability goes low.

 

[DJ Bobcat]

If no one is onboard, then everything can be locked up tight. Hijacking typically requires a vehicle to be stopped .. somewhere. If it's only at rest at hubs, the probability goes low.

If the vehicle is being controlled remotely, a hacker will find a way to hijack it... Wouldn’t terrorists have fun taking driverless buses full of passengers and driving them off of a cliff or into oncoming driverless traffic?[emoji848]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[steve149]

If the vehicle is being controlled remotely, a hacker will find a way to hijack it... Wouldn’t terrorists have fun taking driverless buses full of passengers and driving them off of a cliff or into oncoming driverless traffic?[emoji848]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not remotely .. autonomously (from inside the vehicle). A vehicle that travels the same routes can have multiple fail-safes in case they lose GPS .. dead reckoning, cellular reckoning and WiFi reckoning. These are being looked at for autonomous vehicles as well as autonomous drones for tamper-resistance.