15 Jobs that will Disappear over the next 19 years


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DJ Ricky B

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Mar 9, 2015
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#1
Video is a year old..1 year down, 19 more to go, and all of these jobs will be gone for people. We are entering the "Augmented Age" and "Internet of Things" era. ...Way less jobs will be available for the masses. So what are we going to do if most everyone is going to be unemployed? Maybe Capitalism is going to come to an or at the very least transform into socialism so people can be taken care of? ...The world may look very different by the year 2038.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r211u89eUaY
 

steve149

Urbane Legend
Sep 26, 2011
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#2
I think the timeline is "optimistic" for the decline of several of those industries.
 
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adj2ent

DJ Extraordinaire
Oct 20, 2006
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#5
Yes, very optimistic for the decline of several of those industries. It not just can something be automated it's how the automated device will deal with its environment. Its easy for a completely automated machine to be in a field but it's a totally different thing when you expect a 80,000 pound truck to maneuver through a populated city with car and pedestrians. We could have roads between major cities where everything would be automated but that's not going happen because we can't even keep the roads we have now in shape to meet our needs.
 
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azdeejay

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Apr 1, 2015
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#7
LOL at that list, I dont see it happening, well, maybe not 100%, for a lot of those, there is still going to be a need for humans .

While yes, we are going to lose jobs to automation and computers, the demand for people to run all the systems is going to increase, sure, its not going to be at the same 1 to 1 ratio, but its not like nothing is going to replace those jobs.
 
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DJ Ricky B

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Mar 9, 2015
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#8
Personally, I don't think that we will see Truck Drivers lose jobs to automated trucks. For sure, there will be plenty of lobbying against automation for a long time before the companies that are trying to force self driving vehicles on the world start to gain a lot of ground.

I think we may see a lot of self driving cars on the road in the next 19 years, but I don't think we will see trucks switching over. If they do switch over, I believe a human will still be in the cockpit for at least 5 or more years before they complete the switch over. ...I think this could take 40 years. I just don't see self driving cars really making ground for a long time. People like to drive too much, and it won't be worth the switch until the technology is near perfect, and it becomes cheap enough to make sense.

Another thing I think won't be replaced are construction workers. Not at least in the next 19 years.

I do think that Farming will be a big industry that will automate A LOT with robotics in the future. We can thank the big companies that have control of the industry for that. We already have so few farmers today. I bet 20 years from now we have less than 1/3 of the farmers and people employed by the farming industry that we have today.

With printers and publishers. I believe they have already seen most of the hit, and the changes take place. I think it will continue to evolve for that industry, and even maybe in just 5 or 6 years down the road the changes will be complete there.

The automation of manufacturing workers even more than in the past will really create a jobs problem in the future not just here, but all over the world. They talk about self driving cars, but even further in the future, we could also be talking about automated Jets for air travel. The industry would not have to hire nearly as many pilots. The piloting could be done remotely from somewhere else if there is ever a problem with the on board computer systems


Fast Food places could be completely automated in the next 19 years as well. They could have robots cooking and putting the orders together. There would only need to be a single human (perhaps just a shift manager) to make sure the robots are all in working order. Retail Stores won't have any cashiers at all. A minimal amount of sales staff or security would be employed, and that would be it.

We are pretty much at the turning point of all of these big changes that will happen. We will witness the changes as they take effect in the coming years everywhere. Less income taxes for the government to take in will also mean that the government will be forced to downsize and automate various jobs as well.
 

steve149

Urbane Legend
Sep 26, 2011
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#9
Personally, I don't think that we will see Truck Drivers lose jobs to automated trucks. For sure, there will be plenty of lobbying against automation for a long time before the companies that are trying to force self driving vehicles on the world start to gain a lot of ground.

I think we may see a lot of self driving cars on the road in the next 19 years, but I don't think we will see trucks switching over. If they do switch over, I believe a human will still be in the cockpit for at least 5 or more years before they complete the switch over. ...I think this could take 40 years. I just don't see self driving cars really making ground for a long time. People like to drive too much, and it won't be worth the switch until the technology is near perfect, and it becomes cheap enough to make sense.

Another thing I think won't be replaced are construction workers. Not at least in the next 19 years.

I do think that Farming will be a big industry that will automate A LOT with robotics in the future. We can thank the big companies that have control of the industry for that. We already have so few farmers today. I bet 20 years from now we have less than 1/3 of the farmers and people employed by the farming industry that we have today.

With printers and publishers. I believe they have already seen most of the hit, and the changes take place. I think it will continue to evolve for that industry, and even maybe in just 5 or 6 years down the road the changes will be complete there.

The automation of manufacturing workers even more than in the past will really create a jobs problem in the future not just here, but all over the world. They talk about self driving cars, but even further in the future, we could also be talking about automated Jets for air travel. The industry would not have to hire nearly as many pilots. The piloting could be done remotely from somewhere else if there is ever a problem with the on board computer systems


Fast Food places could be completely automated in the next 19 years as well. They could have robots cooking and putting the orders together. There would only need to be a single human (perhaps just a shift manager) to make sure the robots are all in working order. Retail Stores won't have any cashiers at all. A minimal amount of sales staff or security would be employed, and that would be it.

We are pretty much at the turning point of all of these big changes that will happen. We will witness the changes as they take effect in the coming years everywhere. Less income taxes for the government to take in will also mean that the government will be forced to downsize and automate various jobs as well.
Actually, long haul trucking is probably an early target of automation. Much more predictable than in city driving.
 

adj2ent

DJ Extraordinaire
Oct 20, 2006
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#11
Trust me, if you don't see the inherit dangers of a automated 80,000 lb truck driving down a highway with all the traffic chaos. Then I have a flying car & room for sale on Mars with Mars One. As said before planes can fly themselves and there are much much less traffic & obstructions yet there are 2 pilots in the cockpit.
 
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ittigger

Hundred Acre Industry Icon
Feb 1, 2011
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#12
They're already doing it with cars and testing it with trucks. Long haul, you don't have the city issues. Get on a highway and roll. Is it easy? No, but the engineers are doing it. I don't think these trucks will be unmanned, but the people will be more of an assistant than in control. Computers have been flying our planes for years.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIlCR4eG8_o
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qb0Kzb3haK8


And those were from 2 years ago. Coast to coast is different you say? Here's a coast to coast from 9 months ago.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnkUO4EDhbw

First licensed autonomous truck.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdSRUG4KTPA
 
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DJ Ricky B

DJ Extraordinaire
Mar 9, 2015
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#13
The one thing about self Driving Trucks that many companies will gravitate towards is that it has been tough for many trucking companies to staff the last few years. There is certainly a shortage of long haul truck drivers in many parts of the country. So many people don't want to do the job. It's long hours, lots of traveling. Away time from family, and companies have pretty much put a cap on how much truck drivers can earn at this point. 49 to 52 cents a mile seems to be advertised a lot where I live...Considering DOT restriction of I believe 660 miles a day max with what a driver can drive...at 52 cents a mile pay that is $343.20 assuming they can drive 660 miles in one day. Overall, potential to earn $60,000 to $80,000 a year or so isn't bad for the job, but being out on the road and away from family is the biggest draw back with the profession. Plus...driving a big rig all the time in high traffic situations, and dealing with jackass drivers out on the road all over the country I am sure can be exhausting at times.

I can see where many companies will move to automation, BUT there are going to be caveats to it. All it takes is a major error, and catastrophic accident to get the populous riled up and wanting to ban the practice. Major law suits will happen. ...I just think it's going to be a LONG time before we get to the point that 50%+ of the trucks on the road are automated.

Also, with the cost of the technology, if they are still going to have a person on the truck...Where is the money advantage for the companies? ...Will they be able to employ people for less compensation as truck drivers, and over time they will see the value in it?
 

adj2ent

DJ Extraordinaire
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#14
I never said they couldn't try to do it. I had a deposit on a Model X. What I said is the inherent dangers of doing on our crowded roadway. In the middle of nowhere not a problem. Or on a dedicated roadway. But when you get right down to it the most efficiency for long haul system is the rail system. Interestingly they have engineers for safety reasons and they run on tracks. So, planes, trains, ships have someone at the controls in situations which foster a greater likelihood of more automation. And then you want a 80,000 lb unmanned truck behind a 4,000 lb car with someone's family. Hummmmm

Mars One - (https://www.mars-one.com/). Of course they presently only know how to get 2 tons down to the surface of Mars.
 
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rickryan.com

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Dec 9, 2009
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#15
This video pissed me off. Not because of the information being presented but the way it was presented. Every time they'd mention old, broken down ancients it was always "Fer sure, if you're like, 50+ you're an old dude and should be put to sleep." Then there were several references to "You're going to be out of a job soon." If you want to be helpful, soften the tone down and don't make it so threatening.

That said, I can't disagree (much) with the industries mentioned. As for autonomous vehicles, we can all argue whether or not it's going to take over but I think it boils down to one thing; whether it works or not. If the technology proves reliable then it will reduce accidents and deaths. If/when that proves to be the case, there's no way it won't take over. If the tech is buggy and especially if we hear news accounts of people being mowed down by raging, robot cars, then it will fail. Personally, I don't see it not succeeding.
 

steve149

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Sep 26, 2011
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#16
Trust me, if you don't see the inherit dangers of a automated 80,000 lb truck driving down a highway with all the traffic chaos. Then I have a flying car & room for sale on Mars with Mars One. As said before planes can fly themselves and there are much much less traffic & obstructions yet there are 2 pilots in the cockpit.
Highways are fairly consistent and trucks have much more room for sensors. Most truckers don't abide by speed laws today .. I would think driver-less trucks could be made to be far more safer than one with a human driver. They would simply go from port to port .. deliveries would probably be made by a driver for the foreseeable future.
 
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Valerie Hicks

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Oct 21, 2006
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#17
while certainly some jobs will be replaced or enhanced with automation, there are other factors they aren't particularly addressing. In the truck drivers realm, for instance. My husband is a dispatcher for JB Hunt and they do exclusively (at this time) milk hauling from this location. They pick up milk for Land O Lakes from farms and deliver to milk & cheese plants. They navigate muddy gravel roads, private driveways, back up to or into barns. The driver does a series of tasks from testing a milk sample and checking temperature to connecting hoses and pumping milk into the truck. Add to that a liquid load which is a different task driving than a static load. They deliver to the plant where they typically wait in line before backing into a dock, and again, people check temperature and collect a milk sample, pump milk to storage silos, wash the tank according to food grade standards, etc. That's more than following the dotted yellow line on the highway. Sure some things will ebb and flow towards automation, and perhaps away again later, but to say the entire job sector will become obsolete is a little drastic. Smaller, perhaps.
 

steve149

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Sep 26, 2011
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#18
while certainly some jobs will be replaced or enhanced with automation, there are other factors they aren't particularly addressing. In the truck drivers realm, for instance. My husband is a dispatcher for JB Hunt and they do exclusively (at this time) milk hauling from this location. They pick up milk for Land O Lakes from farms and deliver to milk & cheese plants. They navigate muddy gravel roads, private driveways, back up to or into barns. The driver does a series of tasks from testing a milk sample and checking temperature to connecting hoses and pumping milk into the truck. Add to that a liquid load which is a different task driving than a static load. They deliver to the plant where they typically wait in line before backing into a dock, and again, people check temperature and collect a milk sample, pump milk to storage silos, wash the tank according to food grade standards, etc. That's more than following the dotted yellow line on the highway. Sure some things will ebb and flow towards automation, and perhaps away again later, but to say the entire job sector will become obsolete is a little drastic. Smaller, perhaps.
But no reason a driver couldn't collect and deliver "stuff" .. and a driverless setup used to move the "stuff" between those destinations.
 
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Valerie Hicks

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#19
Highways are fairly consistent and trucks have much more room for sensors. Most truckers don't abide by speed laws today .. I would think driver-less trucks could be made to be far more safer than one with a human driver. They would simply go from port to port .. deliveries would probably be made by a driver for the foreseeable future.
there aren't that many who are able to exceed speed laws...most corporate trucks are governed to maximize fuel economy and increase (theoretic) safety in order to achieve insurance discounts. Yes there is driver error, and I wouldn't argue that driverless trucks could be quite safe, especially considering driver fatigue at DOT shift limits....but I would argue speed is not the primary concern with human drivers.

On another note, I'd sure be interested in how a computer deals with icy conditions. A driver will typically feel conditions change and react before the truck indicates any wheel spin.
 

steve149

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Sep 26, 2011
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#20
there aren't that many who are able to exceed speed laws...most corporate trucks are governed to maximize fuel economy and increase (theoretic) safety in order to achieve insurance discounts. Yes there is driver error, and I wouldn't argue that driverless trucks could be quite safe, especially considering driver fatigue at DOT shift limits....but I would argue speed is not the primary concern with human drivers.

On another note, I'd sure be interested in how a computer deals with icy conditions. A driver will typically feel conditions change and react before the truck indicates any wheel spin.
Not around here .. many of our highways are congested/bottleneck with tractor trailers and very few obey the speed limit.

As for icy conditions, there are already sensors in the drivetrain for all-wheel drive cars that adjust for wheel slippage. Couple that with road sensors, cameras, lidar, radar, etc. .. I will take a driverless vehicle over a human controlled one almost every time.
 
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