I would think 'bad shape' happens before you can't breathe. Regardless, no tests. If you're going to lump all the people not tested - because they weren't available, weren't 'THAT' bad or what have you - then you're missing alot of people. IMO, if you can't breath, it's way past 'bad shape'.Again, if someone was in bad shape, they WOULD HAVE been tested since they would have been admitted. If they weren't THAT bad, then they're like several million each year in battling the flu ... just saying ..
I would think that in the past 4 months at least, that the number that hit that level of dire predicament AND WEREN'T TESTED, would be minimal ...I would think 'bad shape' happens before you can't breathe. Regardless, no tests.
.. and you could be very wrong. This stay at home crap pretty much started in March (viral infection mid-late Feb) .. and no tests were available. It is now May (2 months later) and they're just now getting to a fair amount in a given day.I would think that in the past 4 months at least, that the number that hit that level of dire predicament AND WEREN'T TESTED, would be minimal ...
OK .. we'll call the number of those that don't fall in the serious/critical level 99.994% ...and you would be wrong.
OK .. we'll call the number of those that don't fall in the serious/critical level 99.994% ...
The numbers came from the CDC .. if you have better ones, you may want to contact them ..I won't call them anything - because no one knows. You're assigning some fictitious number to an unknown amount. Where there's 1, there's plenty more.
No .. your death rate is only valid for people who had it and had been tested positive for CV19.Simple math off of CONFIRMED CASES in USA
1,686,436
Deaths:
99,300
Recovered:
451,702
If we ASSUME that all of the reported deaths are truly due to COVID19, then the current rate of death is about 5.8%.
The recovery numbers are coming in slower than normal. I am sure we likely have over 800,000 recovered. No way we have 900K people currently sick and battling COVID19.
So either we have a 1 in 20 or so death rate, a 1 in 50 death rate, a 1 in 100 death rate, or far less than 1 in 100 depending on how many people have already been infected, and never got tested out there.
Here in Maryland, the reported number by the state health dept. are:
46,313 confirmed cases
2,162 confirmed deaths
1,290 currently hospitalized
3,319 released from isolation
Mortality rate on confirmed cases is 4.8%
If I look at age 30 - 39 age range (my age) - There are 28 deaths in MD, and 8.587 cases of people in their 30s. For my age range the death rate on confirmed cases is about 1/3 of a percent. Age 50 to 59 it appears that the death rate is about 1.9%. 148 out of 7,667. Age 70 to 79 here in Maryland is 534 out of 3,596. That is 14.8%. Age 80+ is 984 deaths out of 3,354. That is a 29.4% death rate. For age 80+ That seems pretty bad compared to the official death rate for older folks. Mostly nursing home outbreaks contributed to the rise in deaths here.
So the overall death rate I guess is left up to what you believe in regarding all of this.
CDC is obviously not counting who wasn't tested - why would they. Without a test, it's 'unknown'. Lots of people were denied the ability to be tested.The numbers came from the CDC .. if you have better ones, you may want to contact them ..
All I'm saying is the percentages don't change all that much unless there were some 50,000 deaths missed. Maybe there was "some", but if someone died in the past 4 months, it's likely most are included. There may be a few who died in Dec-Jan that didn't get counted. I'll go with YOUR numbers if you have better ones ...CDC is obviously not counting who wasn't tested - why would they. Without a test, it's 'unknown'. Lots of people were denied the ability to be tested.
The number of people who HAVE it isn't material (could be 1M or 100M) .. it's the number of people that are seriously waylaid by it that will determine how we move forward. Those are the ones that are in serious/critical condition on an ongoing basis and the ones that may die in the future. All I was offering, until being derailed, was that THAT probability is pretty dang small ...And all I'm saying is that the numbers you read for who have it or had it - are wrong. There's no test that says you have it 'really bad' or 'not so bad'. You have it .. or you don't. Regardless, you can't have a valid number if you are only counting tests. There were lots of people not tested simply because none were available and/or without a Dr's approval. When a Dr says 'call us when you stop breathing' and/or 'a test won't matter because the results are the same' - that tells me ALOT of people were not counted.
Deaths are counted one way or another - your dead - that is recorded.
That would be a negative ghost rider.. I know people that had all the symptoms (and it was bad) - and were never tested. The response: 'Stay home and isolated. If you can't breathe, then we'll come and get you'.
And all I'm saying is that the numbers you read for who have it or had it - are wrong. There's no test that says you have it 'really bad' or 'not so bad'. You have it .. or you don't. Regardless, you can't have a valid number if you are only counting tests. There were lots of people not tested simply because none were available and/or without a Dr's approval. When a Dr says 'call us when you stop breathing' and/or 'a test won't matter because the results are the same' - that tells me ALOT of people were not counted.
Deaths are counted one way or another - your dead - that is recorded.
The number of people who HAVE it isn't material (could be 1M or 100M) .. it's the number of people that are seriously waylaid by it that will determine how we move forward. Those are the ones that are in serious/critical condition on an ongoing basis and the ones that may die in the future. All I was offering, until being derailed, was that THAT probability is pretty dang small ...
I am refusing to be tested. I am refusing to be vaccinated if and when one is available. My business has already been decimated by a government order, I will not be further alienated from society by being marked with the Covid arm-band in the nation of "New Normal."
True - though this was 10x worse than any flu imaginable - and had all the symptoms of CV. While several of these people could have been tested, no tests were available - and according to the medical staff, it wouldn't have made a difference in the result.This past season was especially active with Flu strains A & B - dozens of people I know and everyone in my household went through it January - April. It was harsh, contagious, and it lingered. We would have been ripe during that time for additional infection. If any of us also contracted Corona-virus during that time (and news reports indicate coincident cases) the symptoms were not severe enough for us distinguish it from the other flu symptoms, and medical facilities were not testing for it.
Your point? These people were in need of a test and couldn't get one. Big difference. These people are also not counted anywhere.So, what's your point? Are you just demanding that your supposition be deemed more "right" than others?
Have you been tested? I have not - but, let me be clear about this: I have not been denied a test, nor is one unavailable to me.
I am refusing to be tested. I am refusing to be vaccinated if and when one is available. My business has already been decimated by a government order, I will not be further alienated from society by being marked with the Covid arm-band in the nation of "New Normal."
Your point?